Notations On Our World (Mid-Week Edition): On the "Virtual Route 66" Today....

 

Our team has been on our "Virtual Route 66" Prowl throughout the week.  As we decided to headline a sense of the power and influence of China, we decided to digress a bit to present the following:

It’s Wednesday and here are a few PredictIt forecasts worth keeping an eye on. We’re off to the UK this morning to check in on how Prime Minister Boris Johnson is doing after a particularly cringe-worthy interview he gave yesterday. Next, we are looking at the latest news in former President Donald Trump’s legal troubles coming out of the New York attorney general’s office on Tuesday evening. And, finally, we download a recent poll out in Australia that doesn’t make for particularly great reading for Prime Minister Scott Morrison as he prepares to call an election ahead of May 21. We’ve also launched three new markets today asking if President Joe Biden will be impeached by June 30, 2023; if the Electoral Count Act will be amended by July 1 and which party will lead in FiveThirtyEight generic ballot polling for Jan. 25. *Market prices in each “Market Pulse” updated as of 7 a.m. EST. FORECAST NOW Will Boris Johnson remain British prime minister through May? British Prime Minister Boris Johnson making an address from the White Room at No. 10 Downing Street. Photo: Number 10 / Flickr / CC BY-NC-ND 2.0. Is the end near for UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson? As of Tuesday night, the potential for an internal rebellion against the party chief was growing as Conservative MPs openly discussed how they might oust Johnson after he gave a disastrous interview claiming not to have lied over Downing Street parties. A string of Conservatives from various ranks and wings of the party said they believed there would be enough letters to trigger a leadership contest — after the publication of the Sue Gray report into allegations of lockdown breaches. At least 54 Tory MPs would need to submit letters to the 1922 Committee chair, Sir Graham Brady, in order to trigger a vote of confidence in Johnson. If such a vote would be triggered and the PM were to lose it, his premiership would come to an abrupt end. With MPs plotting his demise, Johnson emerged from isolation in No. 10 to defend himself against claims from Dominic Cummings, his former aide, that he lied to parliament about believing a garden party in the first lockdown was a work event. The prime minister said “no one warned” him that the May 20, 2020 “bring your own booze” party he attended alongside 30 to 40 staff was against the rules, and confirmed he had given his account of events to Gray — a civil servant in charge of a key report into the gathering at Downing Street. In his interview, Johnson refused several times to rule out resigning and some Tory MPs believe he could agree to step down rather than go through a confidence ballot of the parliamentary party. Market Data at 7 a.m. EST: Which of these 10 European leaders will leave office next? But talk has persisted amongst Tory members of parliament about potential leadership campaigns, including by the chancellor, Rishi Sunak, who is believed to have the sharpest operation, and Liz Truss, the foreign secretary, who is in Australia. Other names being discussed included Sajid Javid, Nadhim Zahawi and Penny Mordaunt, while there are also possible candidates from the lockdown-sceptic right, such as Mark Harper, Steve Baker and Esther McVey. Market Pulse: Johnson’s odds of remaining British prime minister for another four-and-a-half months plummeted 24¢ in intraday trading yesterday — before closing down just 5¢ at 55¢. The story continues this morning as the crowd lopped another 9¢ off the price of a “yes” outcome at 7 a.m. EST — meaning Johnson’s odds are now trading under 50¢ — at 46¢ to be precise. Johnson’s odds in the European leader next out market are also making waves — up 13¢ this morning — at 56¢. Usually, you would expect news of Silvio Berlusconi considering the withdrawal of his candidacy for the Italian presidency to buoy Italy Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s odds in this market — he remains the frontrunner for the Jan. 24 election at 56¢ as of close on Tuesday — but the quickly building consensus over Johnson’s fate has trader’s full attention. Draghi’s contract fell 8¢ yesterday to close at 30¢, while Johnson’s rose 13¢ to finish Tuesday at 43¢. Market Data at 7 a.m. EST: Will Boris Johnson remain British prime minister through May? Will Donald Trump be indicted by April 1? Then-President Donald Trump listening to a reporter’s question during the coronavirus update briefing on April 27, 2020, in the Rose Garden of the White House. Official White House Photo by Andrea Hanks. The New York attorney general’s office said late Tuesday it uncovered a swath of evidence that former President Donald Trump and his company falsely valued assets to obtain loans, insurance coverage and tax deductions. The findings came via court papers asking a judge to order the former president and two of his adult children, Ivanka Trump and Donald Trump Jr., to comply with civil subpoenas for its fraud investigation. Attorney General Letitia James’ (D) office said while it hadn’t reached a conclusion about whether to take legal action, the grounds for the investigation were “self evident.” “Thus far in our investigation, we have uncovered significant evidence that suggests Donald J. Trump and the Trump Organization falsely and fraudulently valued multiple assets and misrepresented those values to financial institutions for economic benefit,” James said. The civil investigation has emerged as one of the biggest legal threats to Trump as he weighs another run for the White House in 2024. The Trumps have asked a judge to quash the subpoenas or put them on hold until a parallel criminal case has concluded. Lawyers for the Trumps have argued that any information the attorney general’s lawyers gained through depositions could be improperly used in the criminal investigation, which the Manhattan district attorney’s office is conducting alongside lawyers from the attorney general’s office.

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