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| redictable Insights provides a unique, crowdsourced perspective at the intersection of politics and prediction markets. Each edition includes an update on the politics driving the week that was as well as highlights from PredictIt’s market analysts. It’s Friday and these are the insights we’ve been keeping an eye on this week. Alaska’s special election to fill the at-large House seat taking place in June could have flown mostly under the radar as far as national attention — even with the participation of one candidate named Santa Claus, who happens to live in North Pole, Alaska. Enter former Gov. Sarah Palin (R) with an endorsement from former President Donald Trump and you’ve got the nation’s attention. We’ll look at that race and how the Trump endorsement might play out in a jungle primary and ultimately in Alaska’s new ranked-choice voting system. Next up, we highlight the week in international elections and events with primary focus on Sunday’s elections in France and Slovenia. There is also time for a quick mention of one of our favorite politicians across the pond, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his ongoing “Partygate” saga. Finally, we look at two House districts with contested primaries in Ohio’s 9th and 11th — both shifting districts due to redistricting. In OH-09, shifting lines give Republicans an opening to win the Toledo-area district for the first time in 40 years, ousting the House’s longest-serving woman in the wake. And OH-11 comes down to a rematch between Nina Turner and Rep. Shontel Brown (D-OH), who won against Turner in a special election last year. We’ve also just launched three new markets with two focused on the Ohio Republican Senate primary on May 3: who will win Cuyahoga County and what will be the percentage of the popular vote won by the primary winner. The third new market asks what will be President Joe Biden’s job approval rating on RealClearPolitics on April 29. *Market prices updated as of 9 a.m. EDT on Friday, April 22. |
| | | Santa Claus Overshadowed by Palin in Alaska’s At-Large Race ormer President Donald Trump has jumped into the special election for the at-large House district in The Last Frontier by endorsing former governor and 2008 vice presidential candidate, Sarah Palin, who made her candidacy official just hours before the filing deadline. Among the 51 candidates running in the nonpartisan “jungle primary” to fill the seat left vacant by the sudden death of longtime Rep. Don Young (R-AK) is self-described Democratic socialist, Santa Claus, who is the current mayor pro tempore in North Pole, Alaska. That could very well have been the biggest story in this crowded field, but Palin and the Trump connection has attracted the eyes of the nation and immediately gives the former governor an advantage in the crowded field based off of her name recognition alone. |
| | | Her fame also paints a target on her back that is likely to be the focus of attacks from opponents on both sides of the aisle. Conservative rivals will want to gain support from her likely voting base, and liberal candidates will attack her policies – and Trump’s as her endorser. Because of the new format of the elections in Alaska, if she does make it through the primary, she’ll have three other candidates to take on – some of whom could end up being Republicans. The top four candidates in the primary, regardless of party affiliation, will move on to the general election, which will be conducted by ranked-choice voting. We saw ranked-choice voting play out in New York City’s Democratic mayoral primary last year that led to the candidate initially in third place nearly overtaking the initial first-place candidate. The limited amount of public polling in the race, so far, has Palin taking the lead with 31%, followed by Al Gross with 26% and Nick Begich III with 21%. Gross, who lost to Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) in 2020, is the leading candidate supported by the Democrats (though he affiliates as independent). Begich is a Republican from a high-profile (but mostly Democratic) Alaska political family. The survey also found that 37% of respondents have a favorable view of Palin, compared to 51% unfavorable and 12% with no opinion of the former Alaska governor. That’s similar to Gross, whose favorability came in at 32% with 51% unfavorability and 17% with no opinion. |
| | | Interestingly, in a state that Trump carried by 10 points in 2020, survey respondents reported that the former president’s support would make them less likely to support Palin by 48%, compared to 29% who said it would make them more likely to vote for Palin, and 23% who said it would make no difference. The poll, commissioned by Must Read Alaska and conducted by Remington Research Strategies, surveyed 955 likely 2022 primary voters between April 7-9. Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) is also up for re-election this year. Alaska Survey Research polling from October indicated Murkowski beating out her Trump-backed primary challenger Kelly Tshibaka by as much as 20 points, with another Cygnal poll commissioned by Tshibaka in March showing the challenger winning by two points. |
| | | Trade the Markets Palin took a commanding lead in the market tracking who will win the 2022 Alaska at-large special election on April 1, the day she officially jumped into the race. She continues to hold that lead as she closed Thursday at 44¢, with second-place candidate Begich trailing with 24¢, Gross with 16¢, former Assistant Secretary of the Interior for Native American Affairs Tara Sweeney with 14¢ and no other candidates above single-digits. Santa Claus’ high water mark is just 1¢ so far, despite his high name ID. Palin briefly dipped to 38¢ on April 12, her lowest point since filing her candidacy. Also around the same time, Begich tied his high-water mark of 28¢. The market tracking Murkowski’s odds of re-election to the Senate have been in the 70’s for all of the month of April, after spending March with a slightly higher average and reaching a high of 83¢. Murkowski briefly spiked to 90¢ on Jan. 29, which appears to be more of a fluke than a trend, given her closing prices since. |
| | International Markets Driving the Week |
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| | French and Slovenian Elections on Sunday in the Spotlight his weekend’s second-round French election is the biggest international story driving the PredictIt markets this week. We covered how the match-up between French President Emmanuel Macron and National Rally leader Marine Le Pen is shaking out in the final days. Two other major international stories this week are the continued fallout from the “Partygate” scandal enveloping British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his government – read about that here — and another election heading to a conclusion on Sunday in Slovenia. Sunday’s vote is set against heightened political divisions in Slovenia. Some observers suggest the vote will determine whether the small Alpine nation of 2 million people slides further into right-wing populism under Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Jansa or returns to its traditionally moderate balance. |
| | | As Slovenia’s most recognizable politician, Jansa first served as premier in 2004. In 2013, he was convicted of corruption and given a two-year prison sentence. Having always denied the charges, he was released after six months, his sentence annulled and conviction overturned. He returned to office in 2020 after previous Prime Minister Marjan Å arec tried to stage early elections but Jansa quickly pulled together a replacement coalition instead. His opponents have criticized him for mishandling the COVID-19 pandemic as well as saying he has emulated his closest ally, Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, by putting the squeeze on media freedoms and also for insulting opponents in coarsely worded Twitter posts. For his part, Jansa boasts growing investment, record employment and economic growth of 8.1% last year. He also made one of the first visits to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy following Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion, traveling with his Czech and Polish counterparts in a diplomatic move that he said put Slovenia “back on the world map.” |
| | | Jansa is running neck-and-neck in opinion polls before Sunday’s elections with a new upstart party called Svoboda, or Freedom Movement, led by Robert Golob, the former head of state-owned energy utility Gen-I. A poll from Ninamedia published Wednesday by the Dnevnik newspaper found Jansa’s conservative Slovenian Democratic Party, known as SDS, leading with 22.1%, but just 1.8 percentage points ahead of Golob’s Freedom Movement. What’s more, when undecided voters were considered, Freedom Movement flipped the scrip on the SDS by leading 26.3% to 25.5%. Both figures were well within the survey’s margin of error. |
| “With high turnout expected, the left option has an edge in Sunday’s election,” said Andraz Zorko, political analyst. “Left-wing parties have more untapped potential among voters,” he added. |
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| | | | | Primary Highlight: Ohio Congressional Districts Up For Grabs |
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| | May 3 Primaries in Ohio Likely to Set the Tone for the Midterms ast week we took a deep dive into how Ohio’s US Senate race primary is shaping up. The early and contentious primary – taking place May 3 – will set the tone for other states in this year’s midterm elections. The new news this week — following the much-anticipated Trump endorsement for businessman and author JD Vance in the Republican US Senate primary — is that billionaire entrepreneur Peter Thiel poured another $3.5 million into the super PAC backing Vance. Trump will hold another rally this weekend in Ohio to support his chosen candidate, and Donald Trump Jr. is campaigning in-state with Vance this week. Elsewhere in Ohio, the 9th and 11th Congressional Districts’ geographical boundaries have shifted due to redistricting, turning them into interesting and competitive races to watch – and PredictIt has active markets on the respective competitive primaries. |
| | | First, in the 9th District, Republicans are seeking to unseat Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-OH), who is running for re-election as the longest-serving woman in US House history. But the new Toledo-area district lines move into more Republican territory sparking hopes among the state’s conservatives that they can win the seat for the first time in almost 40 years. In a story familiar this primary season, the race highlights Trump’s power over the GOP and has candidates clamoring for the votes of his loyal supporters. State Sen. Theresa Gavarone calls herself a “pro-Trump conservative” who is “fueling the conservative comeback,” while opponent Craig Riedel has pledged to join Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) in the House Freedom Caucus if elected and has his endorsement. Rounding out the Republican primary are JR Majewski, an Air Force veteran who describes himself as an “America-first candidate,” and political newcomer Beth Deck. In late-March, the National Republican Campaign Committee (NRCC), the main campaign arm for House Republicans, added Ohio’s 9th District to its target list, and its sister organization on the Democratic side, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), has listed the race as a “Frontline Candidate” — a designation used to identify vulnerable Democratic incumbents. |
| | | In the 11th District, Nina Turner is taking another shot at Rep. Shontel Brown (D-OH), who beat her in last year’s special election. This time Brown, who is a member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, enters the race with the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC endorsement. Brown beat Turner last year with 50.1% to 44.6% of the vote. |
| “The reasons that I ran last time during the special election, those reasons have not changed. I do firmly believe that the people of Greater Cleveland need and deserve a champion and this is not just about somebody that votes the right way but it is about true and deep service to the people,” said Turner. |
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| Turner believed the low turnout (17%) of the special election played a part in her poor performance, and if last year’s election had been held in a traditional month like May turnout would have been higher and results would have been different. Now she has a chance to prove that hypothesis. |
| | | Trade the Markets The markets tracking Ohio’s US Senate race primaries for the Republicans and Democrats are getting the most trader attention of the 10 markets monitoring Ohio elections, which makes sense as races like the Republican primary are shaping up to be blockbusters. But, the markets for the 9th and 11th Congressional Districts Republican and Democratic primaries, respectively, are worth keeping an eye on, too. In the OH-11 Democratic primary market, Brown has maintained a solid lead for the life of the market, closing at a near-market high of 90¢ on Tuesday, while on Wednesday, Turner matched her lowest close price since the beginning of April with 12¢. But as of yesterday, Turner made an abrupt gain to 27c, while Brown fell to 74¢. In the market tracking the Republican primary in the 9th District, Tuesday opened the market with early trading giving Gavarone a 19¢ lead over Riedel, while Majewski and Deck barely registered (that remains true) as trader’s looked to match offers. The top two contracts dipped to 65¢ and 26¢ receptively on Wednesday, but yesterday Riedel’s contract flipped with Gavarone, putting him in the lead briefly closing with 70¢ to Gavarone’s 50¢. That lead didn’t last as this morning Riedel is back in second with a 34¢ drop as Gavarone leads 55¢ to 36¢. |
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| |  | Former President Donald Trump at a campaign rally. Photo: The Epoch Times / Flickr / CC BY-SA 2.0. |
| PredictIt markets making the news this week include: |
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| | | The Prediction Trade: Sosnoff, Skepticism and Psaki Tom Sosnoff is no stranger to financial markets, and on this episode the founder and co-CEO of Tastytrade shares is take on events-based prediction markets. Tom walks through a handful of markets, and he ties it all together with a surprise 204 Democratic presidential nomination forecast. Here’s a taste of what you’ll hear this week: |
| “The question is over at the PredictIt market and it’s ‘who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination’ and you’re looking at the screen right now and you have Biden at 38c... I believe, and I’d like to for 1c, and I’d like be totally fine with because this is fun buy as much of it as I can - I would like to put my money on Jen Psaki. I’m a huge Psaki fan, I think she’s the bad b*tch in the group and I think she should be the Democratic nominee.” |
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| | “Something amazing happened this week, I never thought it would happen, but it did and I got a lot of inquiries about how it affected me personally, which is that JD Vance, who I used to look up to and support on PredictIt, he finally got an endorsement that he’s been craving... Donald J Trump... JD Vance now surging on the PredictIt market about the Ohio senate election.” |
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| | Recently Launched Markets |
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|  | Obama hands over presidency to Trump at 58th Presidential Inauguration. Photo: US Air Force Staff Sargent Marianique Santos / Public Domain. |
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