On Our "Virtual Route 66" Around The World With this Special Quarter-End Edition

 

BY GARRETT ROSS

THE CATCH-UP

This morning was dominated by the post-debate question whether President JOE BIDEN is up to the task of taking on DONALD TRUMP, with lawmakers, pundits and other Democratic officials coming to terms with the incumbent’s dismal performance in Atlanta. In his first opportunity to quiet the murmurs, at a rally moments ago in Raleigh, North Carolina, Biden confronted the concerns swirling around him.

First lady Jill Biden and President Joe Biden arrive at a rally in Raleigh, North Carolina, on Friday, June 28. | Evan Vucci/AP Photo

“I know I’m not a young man, to state the obvious,” Biden said in a more vigorous tone than at the debate. “I don’t walk as easy as I used to. I don’t speak as smoothly as I used to. I don’t debate as well as I used to. But I know what I do know: I know how to tell the truth. I know right from wrong. And I know how to do this job. I know how to get things done. And I know, like millions of Americans know, when you get knocked down you get back up.” Those are not the words, needless to say, of a candidate who is contemplating an emergency evacuation from the race. But they didn’t do much to answer the key question: What the hell happened last night?

The Supreme Court handed down two major decisions this morning. | Alex Brandon/AP

Still, the most momentous news of the morning might have been made back in Washington, where the Supreme Court snuck in some major decisions in cases as the justices race to finish up their term. Although the court handed down rulings on some of the heavy-hitters left on the docket this morning, the justices once again held off on DONALD TRUMP’s immunity bid. Chief Justice JOHN ROBERTS said the court’s final day for rulings would be on Monday. Here’s what unfolded today … — Major Jan. 6 move: In an opinion that could have major implications for the current and future prosecution of Jan. 6 riot participants, the court narrowed the scope of a federal law used to bring charges of obstructing Congress, Kyle Cheney and Josh Gerstein write. The decision may force federal prosecutors to reconsider charges in dozens of pending cases and could even require judges to resentence some defendants already sent to prison. But the early read is that Trump, who has been charged with the same crime by special counsel JACK SMITH, might still be prosecutable under the court’s new standard. Notably, the 6-3 ruling split the justices along their usual ideological lines, with the two newest justices to join the bench continuing to be the most interesting to follow. Liberal Justice KETANJI BROWN JACKSON joined Roberts’ majority ruling, while conservative AMY CONEY BARRETT joined the dissent with the two other liberals. Read the ruling  — Major blow to the administrative state: Another one of the far-reaching decisions came down today when the justices decided to torch “Chevron deference,” a once-obscure RONALD REAGAN-era legal doctrine, in a ruling “will remake one of the most fundamental aspects of power in Washington — and hobble presidents pursuing aggressive policies on anything from abortion to student debt relief,” our colleagues write in a stepback look at all of the policy areas that the ruling could impact. “Defanging the White House this way frees up judges to reach their own conclusions about what lawmakers meant, but it comes with a daunting consequence: From now on, Congress will be expected to sort out the intricacies of issues like housing finance, greenhouse gas emissions and artificial intelligence, at a time when it’s already struggling to legislate on big issues.” — Major win for govs and mayors: The conservative majority on the court also “handed Democratic leaders like California Gov. GAVIN NEWSOM a major win Friday by allowing them to remove tent encampments as homelessness has become a top concern of voters,” Dustin Gardiner writes. “The 6-3 decision reversed a lower court ruling that severely limited how local leaders can respond as tents pitched in parks, under freeways and across sidewalks became increasingly ubiquitous symbols of the crisis.”

BY MATT BERG AND ERIC BAZAIL-EIMIL

China worked with the European Space Agency, France, Italy and Pakistan on a mission that retrieved the first-ever samples from the far side of the moon this week. | Jin Liwang/Xinhua via AP

With help from Miles J. Herszenhorn, Joe Gould and Alex Ward Subscribe here | Email Matt | Email Eric Beijing is making major advancements in space exploration — and while other countries stand to benefit from the progress, Washington isn’t getting in on the action. China worked with the European Space Agency, France, Italy and Pakistan on a mission that retrieved the first-ever samples from the far side of the moon this week. NASA wasn’t invited to take part in the moon probe, agency spokesperson FAITH McKIE told NatSec Daily. NASA also didn't get “any direct invitation” to study China’s moon rocks, McKie said, after China welcomed all scientists from around the world to apply to study them. It’s unclear if China specifically invited any countries, but those who took part in the probe will likely study the rocks — which could help countries better understand the lunar surface that Washington and Beijing have been trying to develop. The U.S. has long warned China’s rapidly growing space program is tied too closely to its military and neither side is eager to work with the other. One reason the U.S. wasn’t invited to the party is likely because of a law in Congress that hinders any potential galactic relationship with Beijing. Prompted by concerns over Beijing’s history of stealing intellectual property, using technology developed by other nations or companies to bolster its military and violating human rights, Congress in 2011 passed the 2011 Wolf Amendment, which requires NASA to seek a specific exception from the FBI if it wants to work with China. If the U.S. wants to promote cooperation with China in space, “it must take practical measures to remove these obstacles,” Chinese space official BIAN ZHIGANG told reporters on Thursday, in the first public comments since the samples landed. He added that Washington can’t stop Beijing's “giant steps” in space. There would be advantages to China and the U.S. working together — or at least communicating more about space, several U.S. analysts told NatSec Daily. “We have to accept that even if there are countries that we have uncomfortable relationships with, we should look for ways to coordinate activities to ensure we don't accidentally impede each other's work,” VICTORIA SAMSON, Washington Office Director at the Secure World Foundation think tank, told NatSec Daily. Other experts argue that Washington is so far ahead of Beijing in space that it shouldn’t worry about China gaining some ground — and work on its own U.S. space priorities. “Our focus is rightly on our own science and exploration programs and building a broad coalition of nations through the Artemis Accords to go back to the moon with us,” said TODD HARRISON, an expert on space policy at the American Enterprise Institute. He was referring to the international agreement led by the U.S. to create a set of norms for space exploration. While China’s space program is growing (it has launched large numbers of satellites in the past few years and is developing equipment to possibly prepare for conflict in space), TORY BRUNO, CEO of aerospace giant United Launch Alliance, emphasized that it is also particularly costly for Beijing. The Chinese space program employs three times the number of employees as the U.S. and uses many more launch sites than the United States. “What you’re seeing is a brute force approach,” Bruno told NatSec Daily. If the economy isn’t thriving, “then this easily falls back, because it's so inefficient.”

THE INBOX

FOR PIER’S SAKE: Rough seas have forced the U.S. military to pull its pier to deliver humanitarian aid into Gaza to protect it — and the U.S. is considering not reinstalling it while aid piles up on the coast, The Associated Press’ TARA COPP and LOLITA C. BALDOR report. Millions of pounds of aid have been delivered via the pier in recent weeks, Pentagon officials say, but most of it is sitting in a storage yard because agencies have had trouble moving it to parts of Gaza where it is needed most. The storage area is now almost full and rough seas have recently damaged the pier. Lawmakers on Capitol Hill have ramped up their criticism of the pier this week, calling on the administration to pull the project entirely. WEST BANK DEAL: Israel tentatively agreed to release some frozen funds to the embattled Palestinian Authority, in exchange for bolstering Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, The New York Times’ AARON BOXERMAN and ADAM RASGON report. Far-right Finance Minister BEZALEL SMOTRICH has long withheld hundreds of millions to the PA, which administers parts of the West Bank, and believes Israel should fully rule the territory. His stance has concerned the Biden administration, which wants the PA to play a role in governing Gaza after the war and worries an economic crash in the West Bank could lead to violence. “To mollify Mr. Smotrich, cabinet ministers agreed in a late-night meeting Thursday to measures including retroactively authorizing five Israeli settlement outposts in the West Bank that had been built illegally, according to Mr. Smotrich’s office and two other Israeli officials,” the Times writes. Smotrich would then agree to releasing funds for the authority and extend a banking waiverֿֿ that protects Israeli banks that deal with Palestinian ones. Even with the temporary measure in place, the finance minister could demand more concessions in the future. BLACK SEA SPAT: Russia is warning that it’s preparing for a “response” following U.S. drone flights over the Black Sea, accusing the flights of aiding Ukraine’s war efforts. The flights show “an increased involvement of the U.S. and other NATO countries in the conflict in Ukraine” the Russian defense ministry said in a statement today. The drones “conduct intelligence and targeting for precision weapons supplied to the Ukrainian military by Western countries for strikes on Russian facilities.” The drone flights significantly raise the risk for direct confrontation between the U.S. and Russia, the ministry added, saying that NATO will bear the responsibility for the flights. A new clash would fuel tensions between Moscow and Washington, following last year’s Black Sea dispute. DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of the national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink. Today we’re featuring JAKOV MILATOVIĆ, the president of Montenegro, who our own ALEX WARD ran into at the NATO Youth Summit in Miami last month. Milatović likes to enjoy a glass of fine white wine with his wife on the Montenegro coastline, “with Europe’s most beautiful views of the Mediterranean.” Cue the awwwws, what a romantic. We hear, however, that the Med has nothing on the Potomac this time of year. (That’s what we tell ourselves, crying on the inside and sipping a $17 cocktail at some rooftop bar at the Wharf.) Živjeli, Mr. President! IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @alexbward, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, @JGedeon1 and @mherszenhorn.

Understand 2024’s big impacts with Pro’s extensive Campaign Races Dashboard, exclusive insights, and key coverage of federal- and state-level debates. Focus on policy. Learn more.

ELECTION 2024

ABOUT THAT DEBATE…: You know things are bad when the Polish foreign minister appears to link your debate performance with the decline of the Roman empire, adding that “it’s important to manage one’s ride into the sunset.” President JOE BIDEN is fielding international criticism today for his lackluster showing last night against DONALD TRUMP, which has also spurred panicky speculation among Democrats about who could — or should — replace the oldest sitting president in history. It wasn’t entirely bad for Biden: “Enormous lies by Trump,” one Western diplomat told our colleagues late last night. But the person continued, “On the other hand, at least we understood what he says.” International officials and diplomats hoped Biden would present as stronger and more vigorous, but some were questioning whether either was fit to lead by the end of the debate: “Internationally this isn’t a great look for America, at the risk of stating the obvious,” a European diplomat texted our colleagues. Meanwhile, Putin allegedly snored through the debate. Drama and speculation aside, our long-held hypothesis that this is a foreign policy election held strong last night. Here’s your roundup of our live feed: Afghanistan: Biden brings up one of his weak spots — totally unprovoked Israel-Hamas war: Biden and Trump talk about Israel-Hamas war Russia: Trump says he wouldn't accept Putin's terms World War III: World War III has come up quite a few times...

KEYSTROKES

RUSSIANS IN THE EMAILS: Microsoft informed customers that Russian hackers stole emails from its customers, Reuters’ ZEBA SIDDIQUI reported late Thursday. The tech giant disclosed six months ago that Russian hackers had entered into its systems and stolen emails from its employees. In a statement to Reuters, the company said “we are continuing notifications to customers who corresponded with Microsoft corporate email accounts that were exfiltrated by the Midnight Blizzard threat actor.” The company did not say how many customers were impacted or how many emails were stolen, but has previously stated the hackers were specifically targeting cybersecurity researchers looking into Midnight Blizzard’s activities.

Coop Scoop: Debate Post-Mortem

Please mop up all the blood.

THE COOP SCOOP JUN 28

 

June 28, 2024

By Marc Cooper

I don’t know about you, but I had not had more fun watching the presidential debate Thursday since I drove an Isuzu Trooper into a cattle truck on an oil slicked dirt road in the Amazon, destroying both vehicles, breaking an arm and watching a dozen cows fly off the truck and into the bush.

Take your choice. Disastrous? Catastrophic? Cataclysmic?  How about all of ‘em?

I think my old friend and former Nation colleague David Corn summed the whole mess up in the headline to his newsletter tonight. “We Got The Trump We Knew. We Got The Biden We Feared.”

I see no reason to use this space to paw through the gory details. You have seen them with your own eyes or you have already ten other political obits like this. So I will restrain myself to just a few comments about the general contours and consequences of this smoking black hole.

No defense of Biden’s abysmal performance, but I think it appropriate to say that presidential debates are always a farce and never reveal any of the attributes needed for the job.  Prior to the inaugural Kennedy-Nixon debate, 34 prior American presidents were elected without having to ace a TV audition.  When Lincoln and Douglas debated they spent hours at a time. Days at a time in exhaustive policy detail, not limited to wisecracks, lies, canned zingers and good haircuts squeezed into 90 second segments.

Some credit must be given to CNN for making this one of the most useless debates among all the other useless ones in history.  Not that Jake Tapper and Dana Bush are some duo of journalism bull dogs but preventing them from “fact-checking” was a terrible idea.  Of course, checking every lie Trump told would eat up the whole show.  But with more leeway from their bosses and more imagination on their part, Bash and Tapper could have loaded up some very tough and legit questions for Trump that would have short circuited at least some of the mendacity.  But…no.  Instead we got two potted plants with a microphone and a gag.

CNN also prevented the candidates from conferring with staff and advisers during the breaks as if this were some sort of stamina reality show.  In real life, presidents are always in the presence of advisors and staff and rely upon them as they well should.  What’s the point of the isolation?

I did not expect a sterling performance from Biden but have to admit I was dismayed about how god damn awful he was.  The worse moments were the missed opportunities: when Trump crowed about his response to COVID and brushed on abortion, these were golden set up moments for Biden to smash him. Instead he totally whiffed. Biden’s reply about Roe was frightful, descending into an unintelligible and incomplete sentences that merely evaporated.

You already know all the negative stuff. It was right in our face for 90 minutes.  Anything good to say?  A smidgen.

Trump did a great job of making Biden cower but he did a piss poor job of winning over any moderates or the so called Nikki Voters.  Biden standing on stage like a frightened ghost probably distracted many of us from the gross and now standard incoherence in Trump’s rambling falsehoods and lies and distortions. I detected nothing in his replies that would appeal to the moderate suburbanites he needs to win.  OTOH Biden no doubt turned off some portion of his already depressed base by his frightful performance. So, polling wise, this might be a wash.

Biden, however, needed a jump start. At best he’s slightly behind in the key swing states and if nothing changes for the better for him he is a long shot to survive.  And tonight was a dumpster fire not a running start.

Will Biden now be replaced as the candidate with only 7 weeks to go?  Don’t ask me because only Biden can release his delegates to the convention and I believe he believes he is the only Democrat who can beat Trump.  That notion, nevertheless, is now already under active discussion by big wig Democrats and big money donors. Far be it from me to say whether or not there is a winning candidate in waiting. It’s easy to ring out names like Whitmer or Newsome it’s quite another to vet them, background them, make them make them household names and gear up appropriate campaign infrastructure.

And, yes, you would need Biden to stand aside. And Kamala as well. And pushing her out could set off a party civil war. 

In short, we got fugged tonight.  Anyway you cut it, Donald Trump inched closer to a November victory. That’s not set in stone but this debate was a whopping setback for the Dems. I’ve said it many times before and I will say it again.  I could not care less about the individual political fate of the Democrats.  If they want to go down in flames, be my guest.  Just don’t take the rest of us down with you. ++

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June 25, 2024

Welcome to Future Trends - the must-read weekly briefing covering global POLITICS, ECONOMICS, DEVELOPMENT, SOCIAL & CONFLICT.  AI detects 13 deadly cancers  Putin seeks new ‘security architecture’ for Asia  Rising Bolivian unrest over economic crisis  Sudan accuses UAE of providing weapons to rivals  Iberian lynx is back from the brink of extinction

POLITICS Canada lists Iran's Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist group. Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc called it a significant tool in fighting global terrorism. The move will mean that thousands of senior Iranian government officials, including top IRGC officials, will be barred from entering Canada. Mark Rutte to become new NATO Chief. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, a staunch ally of Kyiv and a critic of Russian President Vladimir Putin, will succeed Jens Stoltenberg as NATO chief, after gaining support from Hungary and Slovakia. Visiting Vietnam, Putin seeks new ‘security architecture’ for Asia. The Russian President said he wanted to build a "reliable security architecture" in the Asia-Pacific region during a state visit to Vietnam as part of a trip to Asia seen as a show of defiance to the West. Rising Bolivian unrest over economic crisis. With prices surging, dollars scarce and lines snaking away from fuel-strapped gas stations, protests in Bolivia have intensified over the economy’s decline from one of the continent’s fastest-growing two decades ago to one of its most crisis-stricken today. EU seeks defence industry partnerships with Japan, South Korea. The European Union is seeking security and defence industry partnerships with Japan and South Korea aimed at joint development of military equipment. These would mark the EU's first such security and defence-related collaboration with Asian nations.

CONFLICT Somalia asks peacekeepers to slow withdrawal, fears Islamist resurgence. Somalia's government is warning of a potential security vacuum, with neighbouring countries concerned that resurgent al Shabaab militants could seize power. Dagestan shootings spotlight rising Islamist threat for Russia. Deadly shootings in Dagestan show that militant Islam is a rising threat in Russia that may force President Putin to redirect some of his resources away from the war in Ukraine. A series of attacks by gunmen on churches and synagogues in Russia's mainly Muslim region of Dagestan left 20 dead, including 15 police. Sudan accuses UAE of providing weapons to rivals. The Sudanese government said the United Arab Emirates was fuelling the 14-month war in the African country by providing weapons to a rival paramilitary force. The clash came during a UN Security Council meeting which warned atrocities were being committed along ethnic lines in the western Darfur region. Philippines says it won’t back down, but won’t start a war. The president of the Philippines said his country would not yield to “any foreign power” after Chinese forces injured Filipino navy personnel and damaged at least two military boats with machetes, axes and hammers. Iran-backed fighters offer to join Hezbollah against Israel. Thousands of fighters from Iran-backed groups in the Middle East are ready to come to Lebanon to join with the militant Hezbollah group in its battle with Israel if the simmering conflict escalates into a full-blown war, officials with Iran-backed factions and analysts say.

ECONOMICS China aims to fix decades-old tax revenue imbalance. Long-touted changes to China's tax system will focus on allowing local governments to retain more fiscal revenues, say policy advisers, widely seen by markets as an important step towards removing an immediate threat to financial stability. Colombia congress approves extension of debt ceiling to $17.6 billion. The request to raise the debt ceiling came from the leftist government of President Gustavo Petro in order to finance its development plans and meet payment deadlines. Nvidia’s staggering gains leave investors wondering. The huge rally in shares of Nvidia Corp, which produces chips to support artificial intelligence applications, has investors weighing whether to cash in, hold on for more gains or chase a stock that has tripled during the past year. UK public debt rises to highest since 1961 ahead of election. British public debt rose last month to its highest as a share of the economy since 1961, adding to the financial challenges the next government will face. Public sector net debt, excluding state-controlled banks, reached $3.48 trillion. One killed, over 200 injured in Kenya anti-tax demonstrations. The government plans to raise $2.7 billion in additional taxes. Protesters want the government to abandon its finance bill, saying it will choke the economy and raise the cost of living for Kenyans. However, the IMF says the government needs to increase revenues to reduce the budget deficit and state borrowing.

DEVELOPMENT More than 750,000 Sudanese facing starvation. An estimated 25.6 million people, or 54% of the population, face critical shortages, including more than nine million people in an emergency or worse, reflecting a rapidly deteriorating situation in the war-torn country. AI detects 13 deadly cancers with 98% accuracy. Doctors may soon be able to utilise artificial intelligence to detect and diagnose cancer from tissue samples, enabling earlier treatment. The detection and classification of cancer using methylation-based approaches is an expanding field, now incorporating AI. EU pledges more than $800m to support vaccine manufacturing in Africa. The funds are backing new venture which aims to improve the predictability of demand for vaccines made in Africa and support local manufacturing of most vaccines required by African countries. US and China hold first informal nuclear talks in five years. The US and China resumed semi-official nuclear arms talks for the first time since 2019, with Beijing's representatives telling US counterparts that they would not resort to atomic threats over Taiwan. German hydrogen pipeline receives $3.2 billion boost. The European Union signed off on a planned German state aid to build a system of hydrogen pipelines. It said that encouraging the uptake of hydrogen outweighed distortions to EU competition and trade.

SOCIAL Iberian lynx is back from the brink of extinction. Just over two decades ago, the pointy-eared wild cat was on the brink of extinction, but now the International Union for Conservation of Nature says it’s no longer an endangered species. Astronomers witness 'sudden awakening' of massive black hole. Astronomers believe they may have witnessed a massive black hole wake up and become active in a far-away galaxy. The sudden brightness is reportedly caused by a massive black hole waking up at the heart of the galaxy and "feasting" on the surrounding gas. How two beluga whales made it safely out of Ukraine. In a complex marine mammal rescue, the pair of beluga whales were extricated from an aquarium in the battered city of Kharkiv in eastern Ukraine and transported to Europe’s largest aquarium in Valencia, Spain. A 3,300-year-old ship discovered off Mediterranean coast. A company drilling for natural gas off the coast of northern Israel discovered the Bronze age ship and its cargo, one of the oldest known examples of a ship sailing far from land. The wooden ship sank about 90km off Israel’s Mediterranean coast and was discovered at a depth of 1,800 metres. World first epilepsy device fitted in UK boy's skull. An English boy with severe epilepsy has become the first patient in the world to trial a new device fitted in their skull to control seizures. The neurostimulator, which sends electrical signals deep into his brain, has reduced daytime seizures by 80 per cent.