Notations On Our World (@POTUS Special Edition): @SethMeyers & @EWErickson On @realDonaldTrump

After an interesting week-end,  a take of the weekend by Seth Meyers who was subject to a tyriad by The Presidents' Tweets--as Puerto Rico continues to suffer and the FEMA Administrator dismissed the pleas by the San Juan Mayor as "Noise" and what we view as the Stunt by Vice President Pence: 

This is as we wanted to feature this from the Conservative Commentator Erick Erickson in his website The Resurrengt  the aftermath of The Hurricanes and the continued incompetence of the Trump Administration:

…. They are dutifully back at work now that he’s done his due diligence in Texas. Unfortunately, his performance in the wake of Hurricane Harvey does not invalidate the actions he takes the rest of the time. His latest tweeting should make us all wish it did.

Yesterday morning, President Trump shot across the bow of South Korean leadership by presuming to tell them – via Twitter, of course – that diplomatic efforts to save their people “will not work.” North Korea had just tested an underground hydrogen bomb that registered a 6.3 on the Richter scale. Maybe he thinks Twitter is a better method of communication than traditional government channels. Apparently, his real estate development experience has honed his foreign policy skills, and informed his knowledge of what North Korea understands. We are to assume his “good brain” knows more about North Korean behavior than South Korean leaders do.

Oh ok. So, after 60 years, they’re NOW finding out what Trump has been telling them for a few months? Got it. Six hours later, presumably to show he means business, he threatened to stop all trade with anyone who does business with North Korea, including China, who represents 83% of all DPRK trade.

So, they still only understand sanctions? Or military threats? Which is it? That itself came hours after he said he’s working on a plan to pull out of our free trade agreement with South Korea, too. Why he’s pushing them around on trade at the time we need military unity is unknown. This has economic leaders there worried. Add to this the disconnect between the public stance of our two countries, which Korean experts are calling “Korean passing,” or, the passing over of Southern interest to deal with North Korea unilaterally.

Yes, the President is literally taking a shotgun to everyone in the room – both our allies, and our enemies, along with the negotiators, all at once.

South Korea already has reason to distrust the American president’s impulses, as he once demanded South Korea pay for our military presence there. (They actually do subsidize 30% of operations)

Many felt his several statements over the years indicate he does not grasp the geopolitical value of the region.

If Trump gets his way (at least what he thinks the last 24 hours), our North Korean strategy no longer includes the collaboration of 51 million South Koreans facing probable death in a military conflict with their neighbors. But to make matters worse, we will no longer trade with China, Russia, Indiaand even Brazil or Chile – because they conduct trade with North Korea – and we will no longer have free trade with the South. This means more than $1 trillion of economic activity will cease, if the U.S. government performs according to Trump’s tweets.

No doubt, the reliable defenders will rush to say:

1. He doesn’t mean it,

2. His administration will temper his threats, or

3. That it’s a good idea.

So, in other words:

1. He doesn’t speak the truth,

2. He can’t make good decisions without his administration stepping in, or

3. We’re headed for a global recession in the next year, and millions may die.

Which is it? The fact that we can ask is frightening.  I’m just gonna say it: We told you so. 

Notations From the Grid (Special California Edition): Around the State in #California

One of our must reads here at the Daily Outsider is "Around the Capitol' By Scott Lay that provides a snapshot of the latest from our home State of California.     As fires raged on in Northern California and Southern California, he shared this yesterday on latest that underscores the continued challenges with Climate Changing in our World: 

Folks-

Well, I'm guessing most of you have been following the news on fires across the state, with the hardest hit being the wine country that the Capitol community is so familiar with. I know of a few cases already of direct and devastating impacts to members of the Capitol community, but I'll let them share on their own terms.

Here's what we think we know as of 4pm:
• Over 78,000 acres have burned by at least five distinct fires in Lake, Napa, Solano, Sonoma, Yolo counties. There is an additional fire in Mendocino County.
• At this time there is "zero percent containment" in all of the fires.
• Two people have died in the fire and dozens injured, with some in critical condition from burns.
• Governor Brown has declared a state of emergency.
• Several wineries have burned down, including one of California's oldest--Stags' Leap Winery--where grapes were first planted on the estate in 1898. The Winery is now owned by Australia's Foster's group, the maker of Foster's beer and owner of the Beringer family of wines.
• At least two hotels have burned down--the Hilton Sonoma Wine Country and the Fountaingrove Inn--as well as dozens or hundreds of other businesses.
• Kaiser Permanente Santa Rosa and Sutter Santa Rosa Regional Hospital remain evacuated. Kaiser appears to not have been damaged, while Sutter had at least exterior damage.
• All Santa Rosa Junior College campuses will be closed again tomorrow, but reportedly is not damaged. Napa Valley College was closed today and is serving as a shelter. NVC's website is down, so situation for tomorrow is unclear.
• While there is a call out for volunteers, public agencies are asking that out of town volunteers wait until the immediate safety conditions are alleviated to avoid traffic jams that hinder emergency response. There will be plenty of time to help.
• A fire has also been burning through Anaheim Hills and has damaged or destroyed at least six houses.

We'll likely have more tomorrow, but let's hope we've seen the worst and our hearts are with those affected. Beyond those that lost their homes, including an entire trailer park, hundreds of people have no job to return to. This is going to require a very lengthy and costly recovery.

He also reported on the latest on the Political Front as Senator Feinstein announced that she's running for Re-election: 

 
• Following Dianne Feinstein's announcement this morning that she's running for reelection, Senator Kamala Harris tweeted that she was fully behind Feinstein.
• Kevin de León sent out an email message: "Yesterday, the White House outlined some of the most unforgiving, fear-mongering policy priorities we have witnessed in modern America. Once on the record committing to protecting our Dreamers, he’s come up with more mean-spirited, shortsighted schemes. His latest proposal proves once again that Donald J. Trump cannot be trusted."
  
  The message closed with "Join Me" and:
  - "Paid for by Kevin de León for Lieutenant Governor 2018. FPPC #1375100. Not paid at public expense."
  
  Of course, he's not running for LG, but his every move is being carefully watched.
• The California Democratic Party has endorsed Wendy Carrillo in the AD54 (East LA) runoff
• As expected, Governor Brown signed SB 17 (Hernandez), providing price disclosure of prescription drugs.

He reported on this last week--as the latest move by the California Attorney General to sue the Trump Administration for rescinding the Obama-Era rules on Clean Power Plants even though Jobs in Clean Energy continues to climb:  

LAW AND DISORDER: Yesterday, Attorney General Xavier Becerra filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration arguing that its new orders lifting some of the requirements that employer health care coverage include contraceptive benefits is discriminatory, reports Patrick McGreevy in the Times.

McGreevy writes "Becerra has filed more than two dozen legal actions challenging policy changes by President Trump since the Republican entered the White House in January." Wow.

COLD AS ICE: The Bee's Cristopher Cadelago reports "The Trump administration’s immigration chief warned Friday that his agents will be making more arrests in California neighborhoods and workplaces because Gov. Jerry Brown signed a “sanctuary state” law."One of the bills the governor signed yesterday is the controversial SB 384 (Wiener), which changes the sex offender registration requirements from lifetime to a tiered system based on the seriousness of the crime. The LAT's Patrick McGreevy writes "The measure was introduced at the request of Los Angeles County Dist. Atty. Jackie Lacey and other law enforcement officials who said the registry, which has grown to more than 105,000 names, is less useful to detectives investigating new sex crimes because it is so bulky."

Other high profile bills signed were:

• SB 50 (Allen), which provides California the right of first refusal to acquire land that the federal government removes from protection and intends to sell by prohibiting the transfer of title to a private party.
• SB 284 (Wiener), which changes the crime of failing to knowingly disclose that one has HIV to a sexual partner from a felony to a misdemeanor.

Some of those vetoed were:

• AB 350 (Salas), which sought to prohibit the marketing of cannibis products to minors by prohibiting them to be in the shape of "person, animal, insect, or fruit." In his veto message, the governor wrote that the bill would "chapter out" provisions included in AB 133, the overall cannibis regulatory framework.
  
  For the home gamers, "chaptering out" means that a bill is amending a code section in a previously enacted, yet not in force yet, bill. Amendments or additions to code sections are taken by the mos

Notations From the Grid (Weekly Edition): On Our World

It has been a challenging World No doubt--But as part of our mission here in the Daily Outsider, we wanted to feature a different perspective and about a more hopeful and engaging future which we hope all take note of courtesy of the legendary Peter Diamandis: 

Your mindset matters — now more than ever. We are in the midst of a drug epidemic. The drug? Negative news. The drug pushers? The media. As I wrote in Abundance: The Future is Better Than You Think, we pay 10x more attention to negative news than positive news. We are being barraged with negative news on every device. This constant onslaught distorts your perspective on the future, and inhibits your ability to make a positive impact. In this blog, I’ll share new “evidence for abundance” -- charts and data that show the world is getting better. I’ll also share positive news and technological breakthroughs, all of which occurred in 2017 so far. Note: This isn’t about ignoring or minimizing the major issues we still face around the world. It’s about countering our romanticized views of the world in centuries past with data. My hope is that you’re able to see the world as it is — a world that is still getting better. My goal here is to help you protect your abundance mindset despite this barrage of negative news. If you have a negative-minded person in your life, forward this blog to them so they can look at the actual data. Let’s dive in... 1. Global Economy The first area to explore is our global economy. Over the last 200 years, the world’s GDP has *skyrocketed* 100-fold. Humankind has never been more prosperous and productive. World GDP Over the Last Two Millennia The graph above depicts the economic output per person around the world over the last 2,000 years. Here we see exponential growth independent of war, famine or disease. Technology drove much of this economic growth, and there’s no signs of slowing. Banking the Unbanked: One especially promising area of economic growth involves empowering the “unbanked” — the 2 billion people worldwide who lack access to a bank account or financial institution via a digital device. In September 2017, the government of Finland announced a partnership with MONI to create a digital money system for refugees. The system effectively eliminates some of the logistical barriers to financial transactions, enabling displaced people to participate in the economy and rebuild their lives. Refugees will be able to loan money to friends, receive paychecks and access funds using prepaid debit cards linked to digital identities on the blockchain -- without a bank. Blockchain & Government: Governments are investing aggressively in digitization themselves. The small country of Estonia, for example, already has an e-Residency program. The digital citizenship lets residents get government services and even start companies in the EU without ever traveling or living there. In late August 2017, Kaspar Korjus, who heads up that e-Residency program, revealed the Estonian government’s exploration of creating an initial coin offering (ICO) and issuing crypto tokens to citizens to raise government funds. That same month, the Chinese government announced its intent to use blockchain technology for collecting taxes and issuing invoices. This builds on previous experiments China’s central bank is conducting with its own cryptocurrency. 2. Health No matter where in the world you are, mortality rates have dropped precipitously over the last 300 years. The following chart shows life expectancy at birth in various countries. Just 100 years ago, a child born in India or South Korea was only expected to live to 23. Fast forward to today, and India’s life expectancy has tripled. South Korea’s life expectancy has quadrupled, and now is higher than in the U.K. Global Life Expectancy Plummeting Teen Births: Another measure of a nation’s health is how it responds to preventable public health issues. Here in the U.S., teen births are down an impressive 51 percent over the last decade, going from from 41.5 births per 1,000 teenage girls in 2007 to 20.3 births per 1,000 teenage girls in 2016. I share the following graph because, by the numbers, teen girls who have babies will have a harder life than their peers who delay motherhood. As the U.S. Department of Health & Human Services notes, they’re more likely to drop out of high school, rely on public assistance, and have children with “poorer educational, behavioral and health outcomes over the course of their life than kids born to older parents.” Since these statistics were first compiled in 1991, teen births have dropped 67 percent. U.S. Birth Rates, by Age Group (1991 - 2015) As exponential technologies continue to advance, we’ll see even more healthcare breakthroughs. Here’s a sampling from this year: Exponential Tech Impact on Health: Most exciting these days is the tremendous impact that exponential technologies are having on Health. Robotics: Last month, a robot dentist in China successfully implanted 3D-printed teeth into a female patient’s mouth with “high precision.” The only human medical staff involvement was to conduct light setup and a pre-test. Imagine when such robots are in every healthcare facility on the planet, delivering service for the cost of electricity. Virtual Reality: VR is also entering the operating room. In July 2017, University of Minnesota doctors used VR to prepare for a challenging non-routine surgery -- separating a pair of twins conjoined at the heart. Not only was the life-saving surgery a success, the VR prep gave doctors unforeseen insights that prompted them to accelerate the surgery by several months. It won’t be long until we refuse to have surgery completed by any human who hasn’t prepared in virtual reality using a personalized 3D model. CRISPR/Gene Editing: Finally, in August 2017, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved the first-ever treatment that uses gene editing to transform a patient’s own cells into a “living drug.” Kymriah, a one-time treatment made by Novartis, was approved to treat B-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia -- an aggressive form of leukemia that the FDA calls “devastating and deadly.” The FDA is currently considering over 550 additional experimental gene therapies. What happens to our healthy human lifespan as these life-saving treatments demonetize and become universally accessible? 3. Environment Thirty years ago, the world signed the Montreal Protocol to prevent the depletion of the Ozone Layer. Today, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) credits that agreement with preventing an estimated 280 million additional cases of skin cancer, 45 million cataracts, and 1.5 million skin cancer deaths between its signing in 1987 and the year 2050. Without the Montreal Protocol, the planet would have been about 4 degrees warmer by 2050 (...resulting in more extreme weather events like droughts, floods and hurricanes). As the graph below clearly depicts, the global annual death rate from natural disasters has plummeted over the past century. Global Annual Death Rate From Natural Disasters Why has this happened?  It’s the impact of exponential technologies (satellites, sensors, networks, machine learning), which enable humans to better image, predict and model disasters. These models provide early warning systems, enabling citizens to flee to safety and for first responders to send supplies and food to remote areas in time. Drones & the Environment: Previously, animals were counted manually by researchers who had to spot them from helicopter or prepositioned camera footage. Now, a drone captures footage, the machine learning system counts different types of animals, and human volunteers help train the algorithm by verifying detections. Faster, cheaper, easier, and more accurate. And in Bengaluru, researchers at the Indian Institute of Science are fighting deforestation with camera-equipped drones that drop seeds in areas they otherwise wouldn’t be able to explore. Their goal is to seed 10,000 acres in the region. What becomes possible when thousands of teams — not simply individuals and a handful of research teams — leverage these tools to protect the environment? 4. Energy A key measure of economic growth, living standards and poverty alleviation is access to electricity. This graph uses data from the World Bank and the International Energy Agency’s definition of electricity access, which is delivery and use of at least 250 kilowatt-hours per year in rural households and 500 kilowatt-hours per year in rural households. Simply put, more people around the world have access to electricity than ever, and the absolute number of those without access to electricity is dropping (despite population growth). Take a look at the chart below to see how various regions of the world are meeting their energy needs. Share of the Population With Access to Electricity As you see above, India has gone from 45 percent access to electricity in 1990 to nearly 80 percent in 2014. Afghanistan has seen an even more dramatic improvement, going from 0.16 percent of the population in 2000 to 89.5 percent of the population in 2014. As renewable energy sources become cheaper and more accessible, we’ll reach total electrification. Here too, we’re making great progress. In 2016, solar power grew faster than any other fuel source for the first time ever. Around the world, solar prices are still dropping. The latest forecast from GTM Research reports prices of $2.07 per watt in Japan to $.65 per watt in India, with prices dropping across hard and soft costs. Historical and Forecasted Utility PV System Pricing, 2013 - 2022E In 2017 alone, we saw wind power become cheaper than nuclear in the U.K., with the cost of subsidies slashed in half since 2015. As the BBC reports, during the U.K.’s 2015 subsidy auction, “offshore wind farm projects won subsidies between £114 and £120 per megawatt hour.” Just two years later, two firms committed to a guaranteed price of £57.50 per megawatt hour. Looking stateside, the U.S. Department of Energy announced in September 2017 that utility-scale solar has officially hit its 2020 cost targets three years early — with generation costs of $1 per watt and energy consumption costs of $0.06 per kilowatt-hour. US Commercial & Residential Solar Costs 5. Food Despite the headlines, we’re making steady progress in the realm of food scarcity and hunger. This graph features World Bank data on the percentage of the population that has an inadequate caloric intake. Globally, 18.6 percent of the population was undernourished in 1991; by 2015, it dropped to 10.8 percent. Prevalence of Undernourishment in Developing Countries Time and again, technology is making scarce resources abundant. I’ve written about bioprinted meat, genetically engineered crops, vertical farming, and agriculture robots and drones. Two more examples from 2017 so far: Human-Free Farms: In a 1.5-acre remote farm in the U.K., Harper Adams University and Precision Decisions recently harvested their first crop of barley. The twist? The farm is run autonomously. Instead of human farm workers, Hands Free Hectare uses autonomous vehicles, machine learning algorithms and drones to plant, tend and harvest.   Food From Electricity: Another big idea in the fight against food scarcity and undernourishment comes out of Finland, where researchers are creating food from electricity. The team, formed of researchers from the Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT) and the VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, have created a machine that runs on renewable energy to produce nutritious, single-cell proteins. The system is deployable in a variety of environments hostile to traditional agriculture, and future iterations will be able to produce food anywhere, from famine-stricken deserts to space. Looking at the data, we truly live in the most exciting time to be alive. And if your mindset enables you to see problems as opportunities, the future is even more exciting than the present.   Resources U.S.: More wealthy people, fewer poor people. (Axiom) Economic output per person around the world over the last 2,000 years (Our World in Data) Finland: Digital money system for refugees (Medium) China to experiment with collecting taxes via blockchain (MIT Technology Review) Estonia considers ICO (Medium) Mortality inequality by nation (inequality of life expectancy) drops (Sam Peltzman) Teen births down 51% over last 10 years (Vox) Vital Statistics - Teen Births, 2016 (CDC) Teen pregnancy and childbearing (U.S. Department of Health & Human Services) First robot dental surgery (Engadget) FDA-Approved Gene Altering Treatment (NYTimes) Doctors use VR in life-saving treatment for conjoined twins (Washington Post) The Montreal Protocol is working (National Geographic) Impact of the Montreal Protocol (EPA) Annual number of deaths from natural disasters (Our World in Data) Wildlife - Drones used to track wild animal populations (MIT Technology Review) Reforestation - Bengaluru: Using Drones to plant forests (Your Story) Share of the population with access to electricity (Our World in Data) UK: Wind power cheaper than nuclear (BBC) US: Solar costs beat government goals by three years (Quartz) Solar costs are hitting jaw-dropping lows in every region of the world (Green Tech Media) Prevalence of undernourishment in developing countries (Our World in Data) Scientists make food from electricity (Futurism) UK: “Hands-Free Hectare” robot farm plants, oversees harvests barley without humans (Digital Trends)