Friday, February 9, 2018

Notations From the Grid (Weekly Edition): On Our World.....

On Politics in the United States Right now (in the aftermath of the #NunesMemo ) 
It has been quite a week as the Markets got trillions wiped off their valuations and as The US Government was faced with another funding deadline.   Earlier this week, the White House Press Secretary called Democrats lazy for refusing to make a deal as she noted how "they won" the last fight.    The Democratic Rebuttal to the #NunesMemo was voted out of Committee and it was before the White House.   We will continue to monitor Congressman Schiff's Website & Twitter Feed for on-going updates.  

 This was also a week that saw a number of members of Congress rebuke the President as noted below: 


We have also been assessing the horrific scenes out of Syria--including hospitals hit throughout Idlib Province.   This is as we also have been assessing the on-going power struggle in South Africa as the ANC continues its' struggle to force President Jacob Zuma to resign.  We have also continued to assess the on-going situation in Iran especially on the anniversary of the 1979 Revolution--President Rouhani held a Press Conference noting that he heard the People's Pleas.   This is as protests continue onward and as American Dual Nationals continue to be held as noted in this Tweet by the Wall Street Journal's Farnaz Fassihi earlier this week:

Our team was also assessing the on-going developments in the Maldives.   Maldives is especially poignant as its' former President, Mohammad Nasheed (currently in exile in Sri Lanka), was one of the leading advocates for Climate Change as his own country is at the forefront of Climate Change--he even went as far as holding a Cabinet meeting under water.     As there has been less and less focus on it in the United States, what we found so poignant was what the ever eloquent @KalToons noted about the state of Mother Earth right now: 
Earth Under Siege (Courtesy @KalToons) 
We could not help but be amused by this on the State of the Media in the United States as Fox News continued its' jealous advocacy of President Trump's agenda and as Sinclair builds out its' Media Empire: 

How Broadcasting is Under Siege (Beyond @FoxNews Courtesy @KalToons) 

 As Syria Burns, Iran continues to deal with the aftermath of the protests, Turkey continues to attack Syria's Kurdish Region, Yemen continues to burn--there is Palestine.    The Israeli Defense Minister came out to say there is no crisis in Gaza as Israel continues its' blockade of it--and as Gaza Hospitals have shut down based on the latest out of intifada.      In the aftermath of the President's Decision regarding Jerusalem, this was published by Ahmed Tibi as Vice President Pence was in the region and the Arab members of the Knesset were manhandled and taken out: 

What will Trump ask next from the Palestinians? Their consent to living under apartheid - and to say thank you? Opinion @Ahmad_tibihttps://t.co/tlqgq6aQy3


 This was also an interesting snapshot of the State of our World especially as threats loom large in the World Economy: 








We also hope all take heart with these thoughts complied by @Jonathan Lockwood Huie that we find inspiring and have featured throughout our properties: 



If you cry because the sun has gone out of your life, your tears will prevent you from seeing the stars. - Rabindranath Tagore

Your success and happiness lies in you.
Resolve to keep happy, and your joy and you shall form an invincible host against difficulties. - Helen Keller

Only when life is difficult, are we challenged to become our greatest selves.
- Jonathan Lockwood Huie


Remaining ever so hopeful....

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Wednesday, February 7, 2018

Notations On Our World (Special Edition): @ElonMusk-When He Proved EveryOne Wrong - MUST WATCH

For this edition of Notations, we decided to feature one of our heroes, Elon Musk. Please enjoy this clips:














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Notations From the Grid (Weekly Edition): On the Recent Stock Market Sell-Off


Our team has been assessing the state of the markets as we received this from Edward Jones as our team continues to remain hopeful as epitomized by this image from our Founders' Archive


4 Things to Know About This Market Pullback

The stock market has pulled back in recent days, with U.S. equities posting their largest drop in two years. The size and speed of the selloff may feel alarming, but there's no cause for panic. We believe conditions are more positive than the reaction of the past few days would suggest, which is why we think this is a short-term respite within the ongoing bull market. Here are four things to know about this pullback: 
1. The source of this selloff isn't sinister. We think there are two primary drivers behind the decline:

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    		• Rising rates - Interestingly, it's actually good news behind the market move. A 17-year low in unemployment and continued solid job growth have begun to spur a lift in wages. Last week's jobs report showed that, after averaging 2.2% growth since 2010, wages increased at the strongest rate since 2009. This, however, began to foster fears of rising inflation, leading to concerns that the Federal Reserve will tighten policy faster, sending longer-term interest rates to their highest level since 2014. Stocks have reacted negatively as expectations of higher rates have been re calibrated across equity market values. 
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    		• Pent-up selling - It had been more than 400 days since the last 5% pullback. In fact, the largest drop in 2017 was just 2.8%. With stocks delivering strong, steady gains over the past two years, with no noteworthy dips along the way, we think this selloff is likely being exacerbated by pent-up selling demand and short-term profit taking.

    2. We've seen similar knee-jerk reactions before. The daily point declines in the Dow appear staggering, but this is not uncharted territory. We've experienced similar sharp reactions in the market in recent years, with short-term selling giving way to healthy rebounds as the dust settled and markets reconnected to broader fundamental conditions:*

  •  
    		• In August 2015, the market fell 11.2% in about a week, with the Dow shedding 1,879 points in six days, including an intraday drop of 1,100 points. The stock market had a return of 12.5% over the next three months. 
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    		• Stocks dropped 12.0% in the first six weeks of 2016, including a seven-day stretch in which the Dow dropped 1,375 points. The market then gained 13.5% over the following three months. 
  •  
    		• Following the Brexit vote in June 2016, stocks dropped 5.3% in three days, including an 871-point drop for the Dow. Stocks posted a return of 8.6% over the next three months.

    We don't think this precludes the market from further volatility in the coming days or weeks, but we do think this dust will settle as well.
    3. The fundamentals are actually improving. Over short periods of time, markets can frequently be led by headlines and emotion. But over time, we expect economic conditions and the direction of corporate earnings to drive performance. The U.S. economy is near full employment, consumer and business sentiment has risen dramatically, manufacturing and service activity is at multi-year highs, and GDP growth in 2018 is poised to be the strongest since 2015. Similar trends are playing out around the globe, where recent data suggest economic growth is on the upswing. Equally positive, corporate profits are rising at a healthy clip, with earnings expected to rise at a double-digit pace this year.
    Not all market pullbacks are created equal. Corrections driven by emerging cracks in the economic foundation can turn into bear markets as a recession emerges and corporate profits decline. But pullbacks that occur against the backdrop of sustained economic expansion and rising corporate profits - as is the case currently - present attractive opportunities for long-term investors.
    4. Perspective prevents panic. Even with the recent decline, stocks are simply back to the level we were at roughly two months ago. More importantly, equities are still up an incredible 47% over the past two years.* We just concluded the longest stretch on record without a 3% pullback. So while this selloff may feel extraordinary, we're coming off an extraordinary rally. The return to more normal levels of volatility may feel uncomfortable, and while we think volatility will be the norm rather than the exception moving forward, we think the broader bull market still has gas left in the tank.
    Market pullbacks don't come with an expiration date. But when the market's fundamental underpinnings are strong, we do know that declines are typically temporary. After an extended period of record-high stock prices and record-low volatility, the current dip offers an opportunity to:1. Review your situation, comparing your portfolio and your progress to your goals to ensure you're still on track.
    2. Reassess your tolerance for risk, making sure you're comfortable with your level of risk and that it is aligned with your long-term strategy.
    3. Rebalance, where appropriate. Staying the course may mean no action is necessary. At the same time, we think the market's decline is creating an attractive opportunity to rebalance to the mix of equity and fixed income appropriate for your situation, including (where appropriate) capitalizing on the pullback.
    Your financial advisor understands what's important to you and uses an established process in partnering with you to help keep you on track. Working with him or her will help you understand how this market reaction may impact your situation and actions you can take to stay well-positioned toward your goals. 
    Craig Fehr, CFA
    Investment Strategist
    *    Source: Bloomberg, S&P 500 index total return. Past performance is not a guarantee of what will happen in the future.
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