Notations From the Grid (Weekly Edition): Out & About in Our World This Week

It has been quite a week as in the United States, the grip by former President Donald Trump was solidified over the Republican Party, the Israel/Palestine war raged on, Iran's Presidential Candidates registered as profound challenges including drought, economic devastation, and political repression continued, China's Mars Probe landed, COVID raged in India and as the CDC relaxed Mask Guidelines here in the United States.

We hereby present an Outsider Grid of the week that was in our world courtesy the Bulwark, The Economist, The Financial Times, The Washington Times  & Other Partners we consult daily: 

Be Worried

WILLIAM KRISTOL: New polling suggests it’s growing likely Republicans will retake the House in 2022.

Global Economy Biden faces tough path to US economic recovery Republicans seize on discouraging data to warn president is endangering economy with excessive stimulus MAY 16, 2021 by James Politi in Washington World Biden/infrastructure: a concrete investment opportunity US president’s plan is the next catalyst for growth in the building materials sector MAY 14, 2021 Billions of Federal Dollars to Close Broadband Gaps are About to Start Flowing ANDREA NOBLE  |   The FCC has launched a program that provides $50 subsidies to help households pay internet bills and also approved rules for a $7 billion fund for libraries and schools. Boosting Covid-19 Vaccinations with $1 million Prizes, Free Crawfish, Hunting Licenses and More BRENT WOODIE  |   Along with businesses, state and local governments are offering a growing variety of perks to get residents hesitant about the shots to roll up their sleeves. The Cicadas Aren't Coming. Billions are Already Here. KATE ELIZABETH QUERAM  |   The 17-year cicadas are set to emerge from their underground lairs in multiple areas, with some cities and states finding creative ways to celebrate these large, noisy, clumsy insects. World From subway stops to soup kitchens: the drive to vaccinate US holdouts Officials hand out free MetroCards and lottery tickets to entice Americans who have not had jabs MAY 14, 2021 by Nikou Asgari in New York French vaccine may protect against coronavirus mutations Valneva, a French company, is producing a COVID-19 vaccine that it hopes will offer much better protection against most variants of the coronavirus. Read the full story here.

Lexington Liz Cheney’s demotion is a death rattle for principled conservatism Republicans have become hooked on Donald Trump’s method

Uncertainty and the city New York’s mayoral candidates confront the hazards of a shrinking city The next election is the first in a generation run against a backdrop of shrinkage

Gazing toward Zion Democrats are sharply divided over Israel As the fighting in Gaza worsens, so does the split between President Joe Biden and the left of his party

The row and the Row What to do about Skid Row LA’s homeless encampment has been decades in the making. A judge wants it closed in months

The other epidemic Last year, more people in San Francisco died of overdoses than of covid-19 This is part of a worrying national trend, following changes in drug markets

Shelter in place The consequences of halting millions of evictions Covid-19 prompted a giant experiment

2020 vision A new analysis uncovers the demographic shifts that led to Joe Biden’s victory Suburban whites moved left; young and non-white voters showed up   Politics China census reveals depth of demographic challenge Easing of family planning policies not enough to reverse slowing population growth, analysts say MAY 16, 2021 by Sun Yu in Beijing and Tom Mitchell in Singapore myFT Instant Alert Economy US banks could cut 200,000 jobs over next decade, top analyst says Wells Fargo’s Mike Mayo predicts biggest reduction in industry’s headcount in its history MAY 16, 2021 by Imani Moise in New York World A revolt against the rich could be sparked by basic demographics There are now far more millennial adults, some with children, for whom the economy is not delivering MAY 17, 2021 by Rhymer Rigby

 Brian Klaas, an Associate Professor at University College London, shared some perspective on the week that was in America in the aftermath of Liz Cheney being ousted as the Number 3 Republican in the US House Leadership:

 

1. By replacing Cheney with Stefanik, the GOP has centered itself around a cult of personality, in which sacrificing principles and truth on the altar of Trumpism is required. It's a dynamic I've seen firsthand in dictatorships and authoritarian regimes.

2. Cheney was replaced for two reasons: 1) She broke with Trump during impeachment; and 2) She challenged the "Big Lie" about the 2020 election. The 2nd reason is far more sinister. She was purged because she wouldn't repeat the myths that now define Trump's cult of personality.

3. At the extreme end, cults of personality are absurd. (I've had to stand up to watch a short biopic glorifying the King of Thailand before watching the Hobbit). But I worry that many Americans are also underestimating how dangerous and destructive they are to democracy.

 4. Cults of personality function as loyalty tests. By forcing people to display devotion by repeating lies about a leader, they effectively separate the zealots from the dissenters. But it means that principles and debate become secondary to dogmatic repetition of official myths.

5. Worse, they create a ratcheting effect for extremism. Stefanik correctly figured out that she could break out as a GOP star by debasing herself with highly visible displays of fealty to Trump. How do others now break out relative to Stefanik? Be more extreme than she is.

6. As  @anneapplebaum explains, Poland offers a warning. Repeating a false conspiracy theory became a mechanism to show bona fides as a devoted member of the authoritarian "Law & Justice" party. Repeat the official myths, and you're in. That helped accelerate democratic breakdown.

7. It is quite literally the case that advancement in the Republican Party now comes with two tests: 1) Will you unequivocally praise Trump?; 2) Will you lie and say that he won the 2020 election? This dynamic is a watered down version of cults of personality in dictatorships.

8. Whatever you think about Cheney, it's a dangerous development for American democracy that a senior Republican leader was purged largely *because* she told the truth about the winner of the 2020 election. Voters should punish a party that punishes leaders for telling the truth.

Trump's new 'communications platform' is little more than an email archive a week after launch "From the Desk of Donald J. Trump" is exactly what it sounds like — a place where journalists, supporters, and opponents can receive musings from the 45th president following his banishment from social media platforms after the Capitol riot. Read the full story here.  In Wyoming, Trump endorsement will reshape race against Liz Cheney The crowd of Wyoming Republicans vying to oust Rep. Liz Cheney is expected to clear out once former President Donald Trump chooses a favorite, a development that could sink the embattled incumbent. Read the full story here. Economy A midlife crisis takes shape in the US A country obsessed with youth must grapple with its declining birth rates MAY 16, 2021 by Rana Foroohar Economy Mario Draghi waives his salary as Italy’s PM Decision to sacrifice €115,000 annual income comes amid country’s economic crisis MAY 13, 2021 by Miles Johnson in Rome World Israel crisis tests rapprochement with Arab countries Third of Arab world has relations with the Jewish nation but violence shows ties have done nothing to resolve conflict MAY 16, 2021 by Heba Saleh in Cairo and Simeon Kerr in Dubai World ‘They screamed and screamed’: Israeli bombs strike fear in Gaza Trapped in the narrow coastal strip, its borders sealed, 2m Palestinians have nowhere to flee MAY 16, 2021 by Heba Saleh in Cairo and Mehul Srivastava in Tel Aviv NGOs denounce censorship of Palestinian voices by tech companies The NGOs are demanding that platforms reinstate Palestine-related content and accounts. Thursday’s One Thing — Iran's Next President and a Certain Nuclear Deal Hassan Rouhani the 7th president of Iran. Photo: Mahmoud Hosseini / Tasnim News Agency / CC BY-SA 4.0. T he short presidential election season in Iran has kicked off as several candidates registered to become part of what promises to be a crowded field. On Tuesday, the registration of candidates for Iran's June 18 presidential election officially began in the country's Interior Ministry headquarters with 57 hopefuls showing up on the very first day of a five day period, according to Iranian media. Those registering are hoping to succeed the outgoing President Hassan Rouhani, who will step down after serving the maximum two consecutive terms allowed. Traditionally, candidates standing valid chances of victory hold off their appearance until only a few hours before the deadline. Once the five-day registration period ends on Saturday, the candidate names are then handed to the conservative-dominated Guardian Council for vetting. More than 20 public figures have officially announced their intention to run, with the final list of those qualified due on May 26-27, the interior ministry said. Within Iran, candidates exist on a political spectrum that broadly includes hardliners who want to expand Iran's nuclear program and confront the world, moderates who hold onto the status quo and reformists who want to change the theocracy from within. Market Data at 11 a.m. EDT: Which of these 10 Asian/Pacific leaders will leave office next? Rouhani and the 12-Strong Guardian Council Internal clashes have intensified this election cycle as the 12-strong Guardian Council and the presidency have faced off over candidacy criteria. Earlier this week, the council unilaterally proclaimed a series of conditions with the stated goal of weeding out unqualified candidates. Those included an age limit of 40 to 75 years, and a requirement to have at least four years of senior executive leadership experience. On Monday, Rouhani ordered his interior ministry to ignore the proclamation and proceed as before. The outgoing president insisted council had no legal authority to impose new, more restrictive criteria, saying it went beyond provisions in the Iranian constitution. The new criteria have however been backed by 200 Iranian parliamentarians. The immediate impact of the criteria change could see Mohammad Javad Azari Jahromi, the 39-year-old minister of communications and information technology, blocked from standing for a four-year term as president. He turns 40 in September. It could also jeopardize several reformists like former deputy interior minister Mostafa Tajzadeh, former senior diplomat Sadeq Kharrazi, and former legislators Mahmoud Sadeqi and Mostafa Kavakebian. The reformists have for months been discussing whether it is worth putting up a candidate, with some backing a boycott to leave the conservatives in visible control of the institutions on the basis that reformists are currently in office but in practice wield little power. Market Data at 11 a.m. EDT: Who will win the 2021 Iranian presidential election? Iran Nuclear Deal May Overshadow the Campaign At stake in the upcoming election is the economy, which has been hit hard by US sanctions, reimposed after the Iran nuclear deal — formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) — was abandoned in 2018 by former US President Donald Trump. The revival of the accord is currently being indirectly negotiated by Iran and the US in the Austrian capital of Vienna. Iran has refused to hold direct meetings with the US on how to resume compliance with the deal. Officials have said they hope to reach a deal by May 21, when an agreement between Tehran and the United Nations nuclear watchdog on continued monitoring of some Iranian nuclear activities is due to expire. The fate of the deal is widely expected to overshadow the presidential campaign. Rouhani is hoping to get it back on track and have the sanctions lifted before he departs form office. Names to Keep an Eye On The overwhelming majority of candidates are expected to be disqualified, as has been the case in previous votes. In 2017, a total of 1,636 individuals put their name to run for president, a large increase over the 686 in 2013. No woman has been selected to run for president by the council since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. So far, two prominent military candidates have signed up. Hossein Dehghan, 64, currently serves as defense adviser to Supreme Leader Ali Hosseini Khamenei and was defense minister during the first term of Rouhani. The other is Saeed Mohammad, 53, who said he is running as an independent and wants to unite the country. The brigadier general was the commander of the powerful Khatam al-Anbiya Construction Headquarters until last month, when he said he resigned to run for president but some members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said he was fired due to “violations.” Prominent reformist Tajzadeh announced on Tuesday via a tweet that he will register on Friday morning. He is likely to struggle to clear the Guardian Council since he was imprisoned 2009 until 2016 for protesting over claims the 2008 presidential election was stolen. Market Data at 11 a.m. EDT: Who will win the 2021 Iranian presidential election? On Wednesday, the biggest name to register was former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who is 64. His election registration was accompanied by the same populist and crowd-pleasing gestures of his presidency. Also registering Wednesday was Rostam Ghasemi, who served as oil minister under Ahmadinejad and as a general in Iran's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard. Three big conservatives – the judiciary chief, Ebrahim Raisi, the former speaker of the Majlis (the parliament) and the politician charged with negotiating the 25-year strategic partnership with China, Ali Larijani, and the pro-IRGC Saeed Jalili have yet to declare. If Raisi does stand – and it is tipped he will announce his candidacy soon – he is likely to clear most other conservatives from the field, such as Jalili, as they try to get on board with his campaign. Raisi has emerged as one of Iran’s most powerful figures and a contender to succeed Khamenei as supreme leader. He lost to Rouhani in the 2017 election. Wisdom of the Crowd The current political situation has placed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as the odds on favorite to be the first of a list of 10 Asian/Pacific leaders to leave office first. Israel’s longest serving prime minister sees his contract open trading at 57¢ today with Rouhani at 39¢. The pair have trader top billing in this market since mid-April. Prior to Netanyahu’s troubles, Rouhani’s 90-day market high was 64¢. Switching our attentions to who will prevail in the 2021 Iranian presidential election, and we see Raisi holding the top spot at 44¢. Former president Ahmadinejad is second at 25¢ — his candidacy receiving a 22¢ bump with his registration. Mohammad Ghalibaf, current speaker of parliament and close ally of Khamenei, entered today’s trading in third at 15¢. He is followed by Dehghan at 14¢ and Raisi’s fellow conservative, Larijani, at 10¢. Yesterday’s trading, the largest since launch, put a dent in Raisi’s odds as they fell nearly 20¢ from Tuesday’s market high of 63¢. How this market plays out from here will have much to do with who runs and who is approved to continue by the Guardian Council. Make sure to stay tuned in! TRADE WORLD MARKETS

Notations On Our World (Weeklyl Edition): #RandomThoughts On Israel & Gaza

 

"I don't know what to do."

A 10-year-old Palestinian girl breaks down while talking to MEE after Israeli air strikes destroyed her neighbour's house, killing 8 children and 2 women#Gaza #Palestine #Israel pic.twitter.com/PWXsS032F5

— Middle East Eye (@MiddleEastEye) May 15, 2021

MSNBC’s @AliVelshi: “Palestinians are at best third-class citizens in the nation of their birth. The idea that it’s even remotely controversial to call what Israel has imposed on Palestinians a form of apartheid is laughable.” pic.twitter.com/hyx3QVGVfU

— Ibrahim (@Ibrahimpols) May 15, 2021

Notations From the Grid (Special Sunday Edition): On the Scene in California Courtesy the New York Times

 

Downtown Los Angeles during the coronavirus pandemic last year. Philip Cheung for The New York Times

By Jill Cowan

Good morning.

Want to start a lively — and possibly tense — conversation among Californians? Say something about how everyone’s leaving the state. You might hear about exhaustion from fleeing fire after fire, or frustration with high taxes and business regulations.

If you’re talking to Caitlyn Jenner, the former Olympian who is vying to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom in a recall election, you might hear about a fellow private plane owner “packing up his hangar” because he can no longer bear to see homeless people.

Inevitably, someone will talk about California’s astronomical housing costs: Do you know how much house you could get in Idaho for what you’re paying in Los Angeles? Can you imagine having a yard? And yet, for all the supposed downsides of living here, the price of a home seems only to ever be going up and up.

In recent weeks, new data about California’s population has at once confirmed and complicated those narratives.

First there came the news that while California did grow over the past decade, it didn’t grow fast enough according to the 2020 census to prevent the state from losing a seat in Congress for the first time. Then, as my colleague Shawn Hubler reported on Friday, the state released its own population estimates, which showed that for the first time in more than a century, California actually lost people last year.

The decline was small by share of the state’s nearly 40 million residents — just 0.46 percent — but in raw numbers, that is 182,083 people, or two Santa Barbaras, as Shawn noted.

Continue reading the main story

Both of those changes were major reversals for a state that has, since the Gold Rush, been defined by lots of people moving here from around the world. Neither was totally surprising, though. In recent years, California’s population growth has slowed to its lowest recorded rates since 1900.

Much of the slowdown is the result of forces that have reshaped the United States more broadly, like a declining birthrate and the Trump administration’s policies discouraging or limiting immigration.

A hospital in Los Angeles in January.Isadora Kosofsky for The New York Times

Demographers say that it was probably the coronavirus that tipped the state into population decline — and that once the pandemic has passed, there will be a rebound.

Continue reading the main story

Some 62,270 people have died of Covid-19 in California. Immigration policies that were already restrictive became even more so amid global lockdowns, resulting in what state officials estimated was a loss of 100,000 residents and roughly 53,000 fewer international students.

To be sure, migration to other states is a significant part of the story, as well. But as an analysis of census data by the Public Policy Institute of California found, the people who headed for another state largely haven’t been the wealthy, educated tech workers whose departures for Miami or Austin have been the cause of much hand-wringing.

Rather, the people moving into California tend to be more educated and wealthier than the people leaving, according to the analysis: From 2015 to 2019, California gained 74,500 working-age adults with a bachelor’s degree or more — and lost 465,500 working-age adults with less than a bachelor’s degree. Over the past decade, California actually gained almost 114,000 high-income (defined as making more than $138,750 a year) working-age adults.

And while some former Californians have loudly proclaimed that they’re taking their families and dollars elsewhere out of distaste for the state’s liberal politics, almost half of the adults who left California in the 2010s said they left primarily for jobs, and nearly a quarter said their primary reason for leaving was housing.

Continue reading the main story

Of course, a combination of many factors influences any given family’s decisions. And the net losses to other states should serve as a warning, experts say.

But determining what kind of action these signals should prompt is, as always, the challenge.

Which raises the eternal — if increasingly urgent — question: If California’s population is contracting because thousands of people can’t afford to live here, then what kind of communities will be left? Who is California for?

For more:

Read the full story about California’s population loss last year. Here’s what to know about the state’s loss of a House seat. The Inland Empire had the nation’s highest rent increases at the start of the year, The Orange County Register reports. See the real faces of Silicon Valley, different from the men idealized in the lore of a deeply divided place. Track California’s latest coronavirus numbers and pandemic restrictions.

Here’s what else to know today

Ana Paredes, from Guatemala, reunified with her daughter Melissa, 10, after seven years of not seeing her in person.Mark Abramson for The New York Times

Flush with a tsunami of cash from federal aid and a booming stock market, Gov. Gavin Newsom today will propose expanding the state’s direct stimulus program to include California’s middle class, my colleague Shawn Hubler reports. Part of a $100 billion revised budget plan which the governor releases this week, the plan would send one-time checks of $600 to $1,600 to households earning less than $75,000 annually that have not yet already received a stimulus check. “Will I recognize you?” Melissa, 10, asked her mother, after not seeing her for seven years. Her arrival in Los Angeles on April 2 was the end of a 2,500-mile journey from Guatemala. Thousands of migrant children like her have made a similar trek. Southern California air quality regulators adopted a landmark rule late on Friday that would force the thousands of warehouses that have exploded across the Inland Empire to clean up their emissions. The rule could spur the electrification of fleets of trucks rumbling through the region. A red flag wildfire warning for much of Northern California was extended through Tuesday after several small grass fires ignited over the weekend, The Sacramento Bee reports. Kaiser Health News examines how big tech companies like Salesforce, Google and Facebook have received no-bid government contracts to carry out critical public health activities, but have instead undermined California’s public health system. The fight over the SALT tax break, which tends to benefit wealthy people living in heavily Democratic areas, could hold up Biden’s infrastructure plan. The Los Angeles Times spoke to Dr. Nadine Burke Harris, California’s first surgeon general, about how she’s navigating the pandemic. Miriam Pawel argues in a guest essay that while the recall effort feels like a farce, Governor Newsom and the Democrats should treat it as such at their own peril. The music of Eddie Johns, a homeless musician in Los Angeles, was sampled by Daft Punk, but he was never paid or credited, The Los Angeles Times reports. Tawny Kitaen, the 1980s music video star who danced alongside bands like White Snake, died on Friday at her home in Newport Beach. She was 59.

And finally …

Phyllis Lyon, left, and Del Martin at their home in San Francisco in 2008.Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

The house, according to The San Francisco Chronicle, is a low-slung wooden cottage on a hilltop at the southern rim of Noe Valley with “P.L.” and “D.M.” scratched into the concrete.

For years, those initials were the only sign that the house played a key role in L.G.B.T.Q. history: It was the longtime home of Phyllis Lyon and Del Martin, the first same-sex couple to legally marry in California, and an integral gathering place for lesbian rights organizers.

Last week, though, the San Francisco board of supervisors decided it would officially become a historic landmark. Mayor London Breed said she planned to sign the measure after it was reviewed again this week.

“Phyllis Lyon and Del Martin were true champions of L.G.B.T.Q. rights, and San Francisco was incredibly lucky to have their leadership and activism,” she said in a statement.