Notations On Our World (Weekly Edition): On Our "Virtual Route 66" This Week In our World

 

 

It has been quite a week in our World as February has begun.

Our team was in the community this week and captured the beauty of our community we decided to hereby present a curation of events in our World courtesy the team at Defense One, GlobalSecurity.Org, The Economist, Delancey Place, Heather Cox Richardson,  Fortune  and The International Rescue Committee: 

 

The Ukraine crisis Ukraine latest: Will there be war or peace? Our stories on the potential for, and possible impact of, conflict in eastern Europe

Blood hype Why Ukraine’s president is talking down the threat from Russia Volodymyr Zelensky’s call for calm rubs America the wrong way

Decapitated, again Another leader of Islamic State dies in an American raid The jihadist group was preparing to mount an offensive in Iraq and Syria

America and Iran: one more round Nuclear talks with Iran enter the endgame Time is running out to avert a new crisis in the Middle East

To the victors, the scraps Disney, Netflix, Apple: is anyone winning the streaming wars? Investors are terrified that the prize may not be worth it

How high will central banks go? Interest rates may have to rise sharply to fight inflation But the low-rate era is unlikely to come to a permanent end

The World Ahead 2022 Celebrations in 2022 cannot hide an uncertain future for Britain Not least the question of whether the kingdom can remain united

January 31, 2022

Heather Cox Richardson

Feb 1

CNN reported tonight that former president Trump had not one but two executive orders prepared to enable his loyalists to seize voting machines after the 2020 election. One authorizing the Pentagon to seize the machines was made public as part of the investigation by the House Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the U.S. Capitol. Another, authorizing the Department of Homeland Security, has been confirmed to CNN by a number of sources, but is not publicly available.

Shortly after this report, the New York Times reported a story with much more detail, claiming that Trump was directly involved in the plans to seize the machines. The authors talked to “people familiar with the matter [who] were briefed on the events by participants or had firsthand knowledge of them.” That latter description is interesting: someone in Trump’s inner circle is talking to reporters (and the shape of the different elements in the story suggests that person is not necessarily giving an accurate account).

CNN also reported that former vice president Mike Pence’s chief of staff, Marc Short, testified before the January 6 committee last week. Short had been cooperating with the committee, providing documents, and testified after a subpoena. He was with Pence for many of the key moments surrounding the events of January 6.

The committee has asked a judge to adjust document production from lawyer John Eastman’s former employer, Chapman University. Eastman sued to stop a subpoena for 94,000 pages of emails the university agreed to produce, saying that many of them were covered by attorney-client privilege. So a judge ordered him to review them, but he is moving so slowly the committee says he won’t get around to sending the ones between January 4, 2021, and January 7, 2021—the ones the members most want to see—until it’s too late for them to be of use. The judge ordered him to prioritize those days. 

Also, campaign finance reports filed today show that former president George W. Bush donated the maximum allowable to Representative Liz Cheney (R-WY), who is vice chair of the January 6 committee, and to Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), who also opposed former president Trump. The fight between establishment Republicans and Trump Republicans continues to simmer, but the muted response today to Trump’s statement last night about overturning the election suggests the establishment is not willing to make a stand in favor of our democratic system if it means losing their base.   

In the wake of Trump’s weekend attack on the prosecutors investigating the varying valuations of his properties and his efforts to overturn the election, Fulton County, Georgia, district attorney Fani Willis today asked the FBI to address heightened security concerns.

Otherwise, today’s main news came from the meeting of the United Nations Security Council, where the U.S. ambassador, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, warned of an “urgent and dangerous” situation in Europe as Russian president Vladimir Putin has massed more than 100,000 Russian troops along the border with Ukraine. The Russian representative countered that Russia had indicated no intention of invading Ukraine and the U.S. is fearmongering.

At stake is the concept of sovereignty: will large states have the power to absorb their neighbors into spheres of influence in a system that mirrors that of the Cold War era, or will each state have the right to hold firm borders and determine its own alliances. 

The U.S. and the U.K. have said they have prepared a list of “oligarchs close to the Kremlin” who will be hit with sanctions in the case that Russian troops invade Ukraine again. The list includes the family members of those profiting from Putin’s regime, cutting off their ability to funnel illicit money into western democracies. 

This is a huge deal. Oligarchs consolidated power in the former Soviet satellite states in the 1990s and moved enormous amounts of illicit money into the U.S. and the U.K.—so much that London is sometimes called “Londongrad.” Recent studies suggest that the influx of that illicit money had undermined democracy, and cleaning it up would almost certainly help to stabilize the systems in the U.S. and the U.K. British foreign secretary Liz Truss said the measures “can target anyone providing strategic support close to Vladimir Putin.”

This threat appears to have worried the Kremlin, whose spokesperson Dmitry Peskov called the proposed measures an illegitimate “outright attack on business.” The head of Russia’s Senate committee for protection of national sovereignty, Andrey Klimov, said that any such sanctions would hurt Britain rather than Russia by hurting the image of the U.K. as a safe haven for investments. Capital would flow out of the U.K. to Hong Kong or Zurich, he warned.

Interviewed by Politico’s Ryan Heath, European Council on Foreign Relations senior fellow Kadri Liik noted that a massive military deployment would be “very badly received” in Russia. Asked if Putin sees Biden as weak, Liik said the opposite: that he has come off as smart. “He’s trying to limit his frontlines. He’s not fighting each and every battle. Plus, Biden is someone who can speak on behalf of the West. During the whole Trump period, there was no one like that.”

In Britain today, Prime Minister Boris Johnson of the country’s Conservative Party faced a serious challenge to his government when a report revealed “failures of leadership and judgment” by Johnson in attending 12 parties that ignored the country’s strict lockdown rules. Johnson had downplayed the events and now that they are confirmed, even much of his own party appears ready to abandon him, appalled that he apparently considered himself above the law. In a leader, one member of Parliament said, “honesty and decency matters.”

—

Notes:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/31/politics/trump-executive-orders-seize-voting-machines/index.html

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/01/31/george-w-bush-donations-gop-impeachment-00004007

https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/31/politics/pence-marc-short-january-6-committee/index.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/31/us/politics/trump-election-fraud.html

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/01/31/house-accuses-trump-attorney-john-eastman-of-stalling-on-jan-6-subpoena-00004026

https://www.ajc.com/news/atlanta-news/breaking-fulton-da-seeks-fbis-aid-as-trump-probe-advances/OSABSTUVHBATPPMQCU7LXSXMV4/

https://www.rt.com/russia/547781-uk-london-oligarch-property/

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/31/liz-truss-vows-nowhere-to-hide-for-putin-allies-if-ukraine-invaded

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/31/us-to-target-putins-inner-circle-with-sanctions-in-event-of-ukraine-invasion

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/global-insider/2022/01/26/inside-russias-thinking-on-ukraine-00002228

January 31, 2022

The race among auto companies to serve an EV market that doesn’t yet fully exist is one of the most fascinating business stories of our times. In the upcoming issue of Fortune magazine, Vivienne Walt looks at how one CEO—Volkswagen’s Herbert Diess—is dealing with that challenge. Diess came close to losing his job in December, after suffering a sales slowdown in 2021 due to a lack of computer chips. But in his conversation with Walt, he makes clear that hasn’t slowed him down. He’s moving ahead with a plan to invest $180 million over the next four years to build the capacity for 5 million electric vehicles a year by 2030: 10 times the number of EVs he sold last year. “The world is changing very, very fast,” Diess insists.

But what if it isn’t? What if consumers don’t change as fast as he—and his fellow auto chiefs—think they will? Well, it’s clear the auto CEOs are being motivated less by the “pull” from consumers than by the “push” from competitors—and one competitor in particular: Elon Musk. Investors seem to think Tesla will rule the auto roost a decade from now and leave the legacy giants in the dust. For Diess, that threat was driven home in December of 2019, when Musk flew into Berlin and announced he was building his first European Tesla Gigafactory just 90 minutes from Volkswagen’s headquarters. Diess now insists that action was a godsend—helping him convince the German government, labor unions, and public that the race to an electric future is very real.

You can read Walt’s fascinating story online this morning here. And to look at how another auto giant is dealing with the existential challenge, check out the New Yorker’s recent piece on Ford, here. Also worth your reading time this morning: Erika Fry’s deep dive into Moderna’s efforts to keep ahead of coronavirus variants, and what that may mean for the future of vaccines—available here.

Politics Sanctions against Moscow over Ukraine would wreak collateral damage Shutting out Russia from Swift payments alliance would fall short of some expectations JANUARY 31, 2022 by Jonathan Guthrie Global Economy How could the west punish Russia if it invades Ukraine? US and European allies are preparing aggressive economic and financial sanctions FEBRUARY 1, 2022 by James Politi in Washington and Henry Foy in Brussels Politics US restores Iran sanctions waivers for civilian nuclear activity Western diplomats warn time is running out to save accord designed to stop development of atomic weapons FEBRUARY 5, 2022 by Najmeh Bozorgmehr Politics Ukraine through the lens of history Former ambassador Rodric Braithwaite walks through two excellent new books to show how the present conflict was inevitable given key players’ post-cold war actions FEBRUARY 1, 2022 by Rodric Braithwaite What China Is Actually Saying About Russia and Ukraine By Daniel Shatsand Peter W. Singer As the Ukraine crisis has progressed and negotiations play out between the U.S. and Russia, many analysts and politicians have weighed in on what role the planet’s other superpower will play. Their concerns have touched on everything from how China might influence Putin’s choices to whether Beijing might even take advantage of a crisis in Europe to follow through on its own threats of aggression toward Taiwan. However, these discussions have often been based more on supposition than the reality of China’s words and actions.  Read more » 'Major Non-NATO Ally' Designation Will Enhance U.S., Qatar Relationship During a meeting today with Qatari Amir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, President Joe Biden indicated plans to nominate Qatar as a "major non-NATO ally" for the United States. The designation will change the way the United States and its military interact with that country, said Pentagon Press Secretary John F. Kirby. ... Read More Britain Promises to Target Assets of 'Putin's Oligarchs' President Joe Biden and other Western leaders have repeatedly warned they will impose swift and punitive economic sanctions against Moscow in the event Vladimir Putin orders an invasion of Ukraine. British ministers announced Sunday they plan new legislation to make it easier to impose sanctions on "Putin's oligarchs" and Russian officials who have investments and assets in Britain. ... Read More 'No alternative to diplomacy' in Ukraine crisis, Security Council hears Following weeks of heightened tensions around Ukraine, with reports that Russia has been deploying more than 100,000 troops and heavy weapons close to its border, the United Nations' Security Council held its first meeting to discuss ways of de-escalating the crisis on Monday. ... Read More Iran plans to move centrifuge parts production from Karaj to Isfahan, IAEA says The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) says Iran has informed the world body that it will move the production of centrifuge rotor tubes and bellows from TESA Karaj Complex to the central city of Isfahan. ... Read More

Putin the gambler may have gone too far to back down

By Timothy Ash @tashecon via UkraineAlert Russian President Vladimir Putin has moved to escalate tensions with Ukraine in recent months by putting a huge and unprecedented Russian military force on its borders while launching a concerted “coercive” diplomatic effort sketching out new red lines for NATO. While his next steps are uncertain, some still believe he will ultimately deescalate. However, it is far from clear whether he can do this without losing face if, as seems likely, NATO and Ukraine only concede to very few of his demands. This will loom large in his decision-making process from here on. So far, Putin has secured a number of wins from the current crisis.

Vlad the invader Momentum is building for war in Ukraine Vladimir Putin is courting disaster for Russia’s neighbour—and himself

The guns of January As war looms larger, what are Russia’s military options in Ukraine? They all have their drawbacks

The Economist explains Could Ukraine’s anti-tank missiles hamper a Russian invasion? They could make it harder for Russia’s army to enter cities, but they won’t halt it

Russia and NATO How to talk to Mr Putin Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine has created a chance to enhance the security of Europe

Keep calm and carry on Ukrainians are peculiarly relaxed about Russia’s troop build-up Many have grown inured to a risk they can do nothing about

From Moscow with menaces How to deter Vladimir Putin from invading Ukraine The West, and Ukrainians, should raise the cost of Russian aggression

A forced brotherhood Why Russia has never accepted Ukrainian independence It might have, had it chosen democracy

Waiting for the freeze The Ukrainian army has got better at fighting Russian-backed separatists But now war of a different kind looms

Economist Films How Putin is silencing his opponents Our film reveals the tactics used by the Russian president to intimidate the opposition

Manacled in Moscow Vladimir Putin has shifted from autocracy to dictatorship And Russians across the country are feeling the heat

Politics China launches campaign to clean internet for lunar new year holiday Officials ordered to target celebrity fan groups and money worship in month-long drive JANUARY 25, 2022 by Ryan McMorrow in Beijing

Putin tests Biden's leadership as Russia 'senses weakness' over Ukraine Russian President Vladimir Putin's Ukraine posturing is presenting President Joe Biden with his biggest test yet as the commander in chief's domestic legislative agenda remains in tatters. Read the full story here Republicans Are Split Over Ukraine, Threatening a Rare Bipartisan Consensus By Jacqueline Feldscher President Donald Trump may have left Washington, but his pro-Russia views persist in at least part of the Republican Party. Read more »

Politics ‘Global Britain’ seeks to show its military worth in Ukraine Security is one area where the UK remains relatively strong and unaffected by Brexit JANUARY 25, 2022 by Laura Hughes in London and Henry Foy in Brussels World EU treads carefully on Ukraine invasion threat Bloc does not follow London and Washington in pulling diplomatic staff from Kyiv JANUARY 25, 2022 by Valentina Pop

Politics Kazakhstan unrest shows Erdogan that Putin is still the regional ‘big boss’ Russian role in recent protest deals blow to Turkish president as he seeks to cultivate pan-Turkic unity JANUARY 25, 2022 by Laura Pitel in Ankara Today's selection -- from Strongmen by Ruth Ben-Ghiat. Benito Mussolini’s philandering was an integral part of his leadership image: “'Duce, I saw you yesterday during your tumultuous visit to our city,' wrote Michela C. of Siena in December 1925. Our eyes met. I told you of my admiration, devotion, revealed my feelings to you .... Before your visit I was the unhappi­est woman in the world. Stuck in a bad marriage, with a cold man .... I feared I would never know love in my life. Now I know that I love you ... I understood that I had touched your heart from the heated way you looked at me just before I fainted. "History does not record whether Michela C. was one of thousands of women who, during two decades of Mussolini's rule, became part of his state-assisted machine of libidinal gratification. Young and less young, rich and poor, they came to his attention at rallies, events, or through letters they wrote to him. We don't know if Michela was among the five to twenty different women per week who received an invitation to meet Il Duce and climbed the stairs to his private quarters in Palazzo Venezia. When they emerged, 15 minutes later -- the time it took for the 'brief and violent' encounters he favored -- they were persons of interest to Mussolini’s security apparatus. His fixers and secret police stood ready to force an abortion, pay for silence, or make life difficult for the women’s boyfriends and husbands. One thing was certain: once Mussolini entered your life and your vagina, you were never free of him again. "The strongman would be nothing without bodies to control. He needs crowds to acclaim his projects of national greatness on camera, taxpayers to fund his follies and his private bank accounts, soldiers to fight his wars, and mothers to birth all of the above. The systems of Mussolini and other leaders created to procure bodies for their sexual satisfaction may be seen in this context. Far from being a private affair, the sex life of the strongman reveals how corruption, propaganda, violence, and virility work together and how personalist rulers use state resources to fulfill their desires. Gaddafi was unusual in establishing a bureaucracy dedicated to this project, but whenever the ruler has a sex addiction, as he and Mussolini did, it subtracts time and energy from governance -- up to several hours a day in their cases. "Many strongmen boast of their virile powers. Bare-chested photo­graphs advertise the fitness and potency of Mussolini and Putin. Gaddafi, Berlusconi, and Trump vaunt control of desirable women, the former by surrounding himself with attractive female bodyguards and nurses, the latter two with former models and beauty pageant queens. Some broad­cast their sexual stamina. 'I can love four women at the same time,' says Duterte; 'If I sleep for three hours, I have the energy to make love for three hours after that,' claims Berlusconi. 'As a masculine egotist he sees women solely as beauties made for pleasure,' reflected Mussolini's much ­betrayed mistress Margherita Sarfatti at the end of her biography Dux. Most of the leaders featured in this book would fit that description and be proud of it. "Presented by their personality cults as the ideal blend of everyman and superman, authoritarians make ordinary men feel better about their own transgressions. These were probably not as lavishly bad as what the leader was engaging in: hosting sex parties with underage women in attendance (Berlusconi), being spanked by porn stars (Trump), or keeping the twin sister of your wife as your mistress (Mobutu). The appeal of these leaders for many rests on their having the power to get away with things that ordinary men cannot, whether in the bedroom or in politics. Putin with bikers 2019 "Gaining favor after periods of economic and political gain for women, the strongman seeks to reverse shifts in social norms that threaten patri­archy and the satisfaction of 'natural' male desires. Nazi ideologue Alfred Rosenberg's 1930 call for 'the emancipation of women from the women's emancipation movement' was typical. So was Berlusconi's 2009 warning to Italian women that the state could not protect them from sex­ual assault, hinting that their own attractiveness made them fair game: 'We can't deploy a big military force to avoid rapes. We'd have to have as many soldiers in the street as there are beautiful Italian women.' For a century, women have been the strongman's adversaries, along with prose­cutors, journalists, and the political opposition. His machismo is not just empty posturing, but a strategy of political legitimation and an important component of authoritarian rule. "Putin is a case in point. His body display is an integral part of his identity as defender of Russia's pride and its right to expand in the world. The Kremlin releases images of him in macho poses, like the ones taken of him fishing during a 2007 vacation in southern Siberia. The government also deploys images of him as a hypermasculine thug to send a message when his power is threatened, as when he posed with bikers in a black leather jacket in August 2019 as tens of thousands of Russians protested him in the streets. "Strongman rulers also display their virility to and for each other. Public events, like meetings and summits, where millions will be watching, are ideal occasions. Machismo figures heavily in their mediatized brand of politics. Hitler, preparing for his first in-person meeting with Mussolini in 1934, stoked the fires by telling an American journalist that he preferred 'man to man diplomacy.' Putin’s virile friendship with Berlusconi was genuine, but the Russian is trained in the science of attraction and knows how to simulate male fellowship, as when he walked hand in hand with Modi for the cameras in Saint Petersburg in June 2017. Trump bonded with Orbán as they sat together at the White House in 2019, their craggy faces and heavy bodies projecting a kindred brutalist power. 'It's like we're twins,' Trump exclaimed."   author: Ruth Ben-Ghiat   title: Strongmen: Mussolini to the Present   publisher: W.W. Norton and Company   date: Copyright 2020 by Ruth Ben-Ghiat   page(s): 119-120   We conclude with a concert for Afghanistan:

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