On the Weekly "Virtual Route 66" This Week

 It has been quite a week.  Iran's Revolution began anew, as the drama surrounding former President Trump ensures with his legal troubles, what happened in Wisconsin, abortion rulings in Texas and Washington, and the ongoing challenges in Ukraine.

Our team curated a snapshot of the week that was with notations courtesy of the Team at the Center for Human Rights in Iran, Crooked Media, Defense One, The Economist, The National, Time of Israel, Observations from the Forward Party, and NBC News: 

URL: https://iranhumanrights.org/2023/04/imprisoned-dissident-rapper-toomaj-salehi-voice-of-irans-protests-faces-possible-execution

Sources Close to Toomaj Urge International Community to Demand His Release Before Trial Begins Imprisoned Unjustly Since October 2022, in Urgent Need of Medical Care April 6, 2023 – The international community, including music and arts institutions as well as freedom of speech and expression organizations, should urgently call for the release from arbitrary imprisonment of dissident rapper Toomaj Salehi, who is widely considered the voice of Iran’s protest movement, said the Center for Human Rights in Iran (CHRI). “Toomaj rapped about political and social issues that Iranian authorities have long tried to conceal from domestic and foreign audiences to ward off criticism of their repressive policies,” said CHRI Executive Director Hadi Ghaemi. “Toomaj took extreme personal risks by further exposing issues that the state wants to hide, like child labor and political repression, through his art.” “For peacefully criticizing state policies through his music, and because he has a large audience inside Iran, Toomaj has been in jail since October 2022, facing charges that could carry the death penalty,” added Ghaemi. “He is in urgent need of intense and coordinated international pressure for his freedom, as are the many other detainees and political prisoners in Iran,” said Ghaemi. Widely revered inside Iran as an underground rapper who directly addressed the denial of human rights in the Islamic Republic, Salehi, 33, known among his fans by his first name and from the city of Shahin Shahr, Isfahan Province, has been detained in isolation from all other prisoners in the province’s Dastgerd Prison—in a high-security ward controlled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) intelligence organization—since October 31, 2022. Facing Multiple Charges, Possible Death Sentence In interviews with CHRI, sources close to Toomaj said the rapper required urgent medical treatment that cannot be provided from within the prison. They also stressed the importance of international pressure for Salehi’s release before his trial begins—in which he has been denied a lawyer of his choice and denied the right to prepare a proper defense—due to the severity of the charges he’s facing, including one that carries the death penalty. He has only been allowed to meet with his lawyer three times in the last five months, sources told CHRI. “Toomaj always used to quote [the poet] Ahmad Shamlou’s famous words that “an artist must always be ‘above’ power, not ‘with’ power,” said a source with detailed knowledge of his case who requested anonymity for security reasons. “I can confidently say that if it weren’t for the media and international pressure in the early days and weeks, Toomaj might not be alive today,” added the source, stressing that the support has since faded. “Toomaj’s trial has not yet been held, so it is very important to act now before it starts,” the source said. Toomaj was arrested after joining street protests that had erupted across the country in mid-September 2022 after Jina Mahsa Amini, 22, was killed in state custody following her arrest by the so-called “morality police” for her alleged improper hijab. He had previously been detained in September 2021 and was released after 8 days. After moving from one safe house to another, he was detained shortly after the Canadian Broadcasting Cooperation aired an interview with him in which he described what it’s like to live in Iran: “You are dealing with a mafia that is ready to kill the entire nation…in order to keep its power, money and weapons.” Medical Treatment Urgently Needed State media then published a video purporting to show the rapper blindfolded, with bruising on his face, apologizing for his words. Family members and supporters accused the authorities of torturing Salehi in prison to force him to make a false confession. Directed by Islamic Republic intelligence agents, state media has a documented history of aiding the country’s intelligence and security apparatus by broadcasting false forced “confessions” that have been extracted under torture, in order to defame political prisoners in the public eye. Toomaj is facing a charge that could carry the death penalty, “corruption on earth,” as well as charges that each carry 1-10 years of imprisonment: “propaganda against the state,” “formation and management of illegal groups with the aim of undermining national security,” “collaboration with hostile governments,” and “spreading lies and inciting violence through cyberspace and encouraging individuals to commit violent acts.” His court date has not been set.

- Disgraced former president Donald Trump on a normal one during his Mar-a-Lago post-arraignment speech

- Right wing commentator Anna Perez talking about the depiction of…Princess Peach in the new Super Mario Bros. movie… Folks, you’re not gonna believe this, but Clarence Thomas did something really unethical.    For over 20 years, Clarence Thomas has accepted luxury trips almost annually(!) from real-estate billionaire and Republican mega-donor Harlan Crow—a man who also has substantial business before the Supreme Court. We’re talking yachts, private jets, island hopping, personal chefs. According to ProPublica’s investigative reporting, the eye-popping value and frequency of Crow’s gifts to Thomas “have no known precedent” in the modern history of the United States Supreme Court.    Neither Thomas nor the Supreme Court have commented on the story, but Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL), who chairs the Senate Judiciary Committee, sure as hell did. Excoriating Thomas, Durbin said, “The highest court in the land shouldn’t have the lowest ethical standards,” and called his behavior “simply inconsistent with the ethical standards the American people expect of any public servant, let alone a Justice on the Supreme Court.”   For comparison, the “Gifts Rule” for public officials like members of Congress is that they are only allowed to accept gifts valued at less than $50, and no more than $100 from a single donor in one year. The total value of two decades of trips is certainly in the millions, if not tens of millions, and Thomas never reported them as part of his annual financial disclosure statements. The law clearly requires disclosure for private jet flights, which Thomas appears to have (repeatedly) violated. Multiple ethics law experts have opined that the yacht cruises also should have been disclosed. This raises larger questions about the Supreme Court, and Thomas’s history of ethical misconduct within it.   The Supreme Court is the only judicial body in the country not under the purview of a code of ethics. Which poses the question: Why? Why is the most powerful court in the United States, which has lately been in the habit of stripping rights from marginalized people and siding with corporations and the ultra-powerful, exempt from basic ethics rules that apply to all other civil servants?    Obviously, this is not Clarence Thomas’s first rodeo when it comes to ethical misconduct. Even apart from his high-profile harassment of Anita Hill, Thomas’s ultra-MAGA wife Ginni very famously encouraged and participated in Donald Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election results, after which Thomas cast the sole dissenting vote against forcing witnesses to disclose evidence to the House January 6 Committee. But Justice Thomas is not simply one bad egg. Conservative justices reportedly prayed with evangelical anti-choice groups before the monumental decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. Justice Samuel Alito reportedly shared information related to Burwell v. Hobby Lobby with a conservative activist in advance of the court’s decision.  There have been rumblings of bipartisan support for a Supreme Court code of ethics in the halls of Congress in the past, but thus far the idea has been met with resistance (and not just from Republicans who think Thomas’s corruption is awesome). It would “raise an array of legal questions” including how such a code would be enforced or whether the Court itself would accept it at all. How effective is our system of “checks and balances” if one branch of government effectively answers to no one?

Ukraine Victory Unlikely This Year, Milley Says
By Kevin Baron

Watch Kevin Baron's interview with Gen. Mark Milley, part of Defense One's State of Defense series, here.

Read more »

 

'Lower the Rhetoric' on China, Says Milley
By Kevin Baron

Watch Kevin Baron's interview with Gen. Mark Milley, part of Defense One's State of Defense series, here.

Read more »

How an elite Israeli commando built a protest movement Army reservists have led opposition to controversial reforms

Shielding his eyes from the sun as it reflected on the sand dunes, Eyal Naveh looked out at the hundreds of new recruits gathered at an army base in central Israel. He felt his stomach churn as he looked into the earnest eyes of the 18-year-olds who peered up at him, exhausted by the morning’s training exercises. Naveh, six-foot tall and sturdily built, is a 47-year-old veteran of Sayeret Matkal, Israel’s most prestigious special-forces unit. As part of his reserve duty in late January, he was training a new generation of fighters. Some of these boys, he thought, would become the country’s future leaders, just like Binyamin Netanyahu, the country’s prime minister, who had served in the unit over five decades ago. Normally, when instructing recruits, Naveh beams with pride for his country. Yet on that day, he grieved. “What kind of country would they go on to serve?” he thought to himself. During the lunch break, Naveh took a seat with five reservist friends. Newspapers on the table carried disturbing headlines. Netanyahu was pushing ahead with legislative reforms that would give the government unprecedented control over the country’s judiciary, including a greater say in the appointment of the judges and limitations on the Supreme Court’s powers to overturn laws. “This is no reform,” Naveh said to his friends. “This is a coup. We have to do something.” The soldiers decided to start a WhatsApp group to figure out how they could thwart the government’s plan. They called themselves Brothers in Arms. Within a day, the group had 800 members.  The Nahr Bin Omar oil field near Basra, Iraq. AFP ISRAEL For the second night in a row, Israeli police forced their way into the Al Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem where Palestinian worshippers were spending the night, using stun grenades and firing rubber bullets to remove them. Two more rockets were fired from the Gaza Strip towards Israel. Meanwhile, the UN's top Middle East envoy has called on all parties to “act responsibly” and avoid further escalation. IRAN Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan met with his Iranian counterpart Hossein Amirabdollahian in China today in a step towards the restoration of diplomatic ties. Iran has appointed an ambassador to the UAE for the first time since 2016, state-linked news outlet IRNA said. More school poisonings have been reported in Iran, prompting fears of further repression as the authorities vow to strictly enforce mandatory hijab rules. TURKEY Turkey has closed its airspace to flights to and from the northern Iraqi city of Suleimaniyah, saying that there was increased activity by the Kurdistan Workers Party, which it considers a terrorist group. IRAQ Iraq's National Intelligence Service announced yesterday that it had killed a senior ISIS leader — who had reportedly planned a terrorist attack in Europe — in Syria’s rebel-held city of Idlib. The UN called on Iraqi authorities to take action after a report highlighted that one million Iraqis were victims of forced disappearances over the past five decades. Direct flights between Iraq's Kurdistan region and Saudi Arabia resumed yesterday. SYRIA Three high-ranking Syrian intelligence officers have been accused of complicity in crimes against humanity in the deaths of a father and son who disappeared a decade ago, the French anti-terrorism prosecutor’s office said. Syrian refugee Hussain Besou has been selected to play chess for the German team at the age of 11, becoming the country's youngest-ever national player. LEBANON Business conditions in Lebanon’s private sector improved in March to a seven-month high, indicating a slower pace of deterioration. EGYPT Cash-strapped Egypt must speed up the pace of its reforms or make more “painful adjustments” to pluck its economy out of a deepening crisis, according to global investment banking group Goldman Sachs. Egypt has nominated its former minister of tourism and antiquities, Khaled El Enany, to the position of director general of Unesco. JORDAN Jordanian security forces killed a drug dealer in a raid south of Amman, the police said, as the authorities mount a campaign to curb the narcotics trade in the country. ALGERIA The Algerian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that authorities have been able to recover a rare 17th-century Islamic manuscript that was seized by France during the colonial period. UAE The process of extraditing hedge fund trader Sanjay Shah from the UAE to Denmark to face trial over an alleged $1.7 billion tax fraud is set to begin, a UAE official said. The UAE's weather bureau is to add more advanced cloud-seeding aircraft to its fleet, after the National Centre of Meteorology said it had signed a deal with Calidus Aerospace in Abu Dhabi to acquire its advanced plane. PLUS … Our editorial team writes that the Al Aqsa violence did not emerge out of nowhere. Ziad Al-Ali explains why the Baghdad-Kurdistan deal to resume oil exports is promising but incomplete. Today’s Trending Middle East podcast features Dubai International Airport being named the world's busiest international hub for passengers in 2022 for the ninth year in a row. AND … Syrian composer Faraj Abyad merges Andalusian poetry with modern beats in his debut album Mona Farag Gulf Affairs Editor   FRONT PAGE Rocket barrages fired at Israel from Lebanon as Hezbollah warns over Al-Aqsa clashes BY EMANUEL FABIAN AND AGENCIES Sirens sound across Galilee, several projectiles intercepted; Lebanese terror group earlier issued statement saying it will support ‘all measures’ taken by Palestinian groups   Police clash with rioters in Umm al-Fahm as violence at Al-Aqsa Mosque spreads BY TOI STAFF 12 arrested as officers move to disperse march in northern city after rocks thrown at highway; disturbances also reported in several other Arab Israeli communities   UN Security Council to meet on Jerusalem violence in 4th emergency session in months BY JACOB MAGID   Fresh clashes break out at Al-Aqsa, 2 rockets fired from Gaza as tensions soar BY TOI STAFF Dozens skirmish with officers at flashpoint mosque for 2nd straight night; projectile lands in open territory near Gaza fence; riots erupt near border and in northern Israeli city   Gaza terrorists fire salvo of anti-aircraft missiles, triggering sirens in Israel BY TOI STAFF   Security cabinet expected to meet following clashes at Al-Aqsa Mosque, Gaza rockets BY TOI STAFF   IDF does damage control after military chief says ties with US ‘not essential’ BY JACOB MAGID Herzi Halevi says it’s good to have the US ‘by our side’ but that Israel knows how to act alone; army spokesman quickly clarifies, ‘there’s no substitute’ for friendship with US   ANALYSIS LAZAR BERMAN Is Netanyahu’s government botching the Abraham Accords? With no high-level visits and growing condemnations from Arab partners, the 2020 pacts are clearly in a slump, but they are here to stay   Iran names envoy to UAE after nearly eight-year absence as ties thaw BY AFP   IDF Passover Haggadah depicts ‘evil son’ as secular, other three boys as religious BY TOI STAFF Commentary in religious book distributed to officers for holiday says God sometimes ‘allows our enemies to attack us so that we’re inspired to repent’   TOP OPS   MANDY GARVER The four strong women of the Pesach story The annihilation of the Israelite children was defeated by Shifra, Puah, Pharoah’s daughter and Miriam – and the moral compass they shared   JAMES INVERNE Because of this government, I’m eating hametz I am appalled at the idea of forcing ill people to bow to religious laws that they may or may not share, at a time when they are at their most vulnerable   ANALYSIS HAVIV RETTIG GUR Sinking in polls, Netanyahu belatedly bids to take control of his chaotic coalition. Sobered by declining popularity, PM is seeking to impose a new strategy of quiet on his unruly allies — while gearing up for a relaunch of the judiciary fight   INTERVIEW JACOB MAGID US envoy Lipstadt: Antisemitism won’t disappear, but we have the power to address it After record number of antisemitic incidents in US last year, Biden ambassador suggests measuring her success by how many foreign governments are seriously dealing with Jew-hatred   Biden vows antisemitism fight in Passover message: ‘We see this evil across society’ BY RON KAMPEAS   Florida high school removes graphic novel adaptation of Anne Frank’s diary BY ANDREW LAPIN   Eyeing Moscow, Finland to purchase Israeli David’s Sling anti-missile system BY TOI STAFF AND AP Deal worth $344 million announced a day after Nordic country joins NATO, dramatically expanding the military alliance’s border with Russia   Passover takes on special resonance for Ukraine Jews as seders held amid new normal BY MARCEL GASCÓN BARBERÁ Describing holiday as ‘a story of going through trauma,’ rabbi in Kyiv calls to ‘learn from the story… and connect it to today so we learn the lessons of hope and rehabilitation’   Azerbaijan arrests six radical Islamists over ‘coup plot’ blamed on Iran BY AFP AND TOI STAFF Baku says men were trained by Iranian secret service and hoped to overthrow the government, set up a Sharia state   Iran, Saudi foreign ministers meet in China, vow to restore ‘security and stability’ BY AFP   US federal probe finds University of Vermont mishandled antisemitism allegations BY LUKE TRESS Flagship state university resolves complaint with Office for Civil Rights after investigation says the school did not properly look into harassment of Jewish students   INTERVIEW After backlash for exposing UK Labour antisemitism, how John Ware won back his name BY ROBERT PHILPOT Following his 2019 segment on BBC’s ‘Panorama,’ veteran journalist has gone to court to prevent Jeremy Corbyn’s supporters from sweeping their party’s problems under the rug   ANALYSIS ALANNA DURKIN RICHER, COLLEEN LONG AND JENNIFER PELTZ The murky legal issues behind the Trump hush money charges Legal analysts say the prosecution has not adequately explained its justifications for charging the former US president with 34 felonies and warn his lawyers could exploit them   Possible Trump trial plunges US 2024 race into uncharted territory BY SEBASTIAN SMITH   The Jewish history behind the WWII rescue that inspired Netflix’s ‘Transatlantic’ BY SHIRA LI BARTOV   MORE HEADLINES   Blinken says he has ‘no doubt’ WSJ reporter ‘wrongfully detained’ by Russia BY MATTHEW LEE   Man killed, three lightly hurt as two cars and truck collide in West Bank BY MICHAEL HOROVITZ   4-year-old drowns in pool, hours before start of Passover BY MICHAEL HOROVITZ   Episcopalian bishop of Missouri bans Christian Passover seders in diocese BY JACOB HENRY   Photo Essay / Sarcophagus of Ramses II, possible pharaoh of Exodus, unveiled in Paris BY AFP   Kvelling out / Alex Edelman’s very Jewish show ‘Just For Us’ heads to Broadway BY JULIA GERGELY

All of America has been rocked by the scourge of gun violence, and perhaps no group more than Gen Z. The rise in school shootings over the past two decades has forced young Americans to face firsthand the fears and anxieties surrounding this appallingly familiar problem, with little of the resources or power to change or improve the situation.

This week, more than a thousand Nashville-area students used the power of their collective voices to demand stronger gun laws, following the horrific mass shooting at a Nashville private school on March 27. The students walked out of their schools and assembled outside the Tennessee State Capitol, chanting, “Do your job!” and “This is what democracy looks like!” 

They weren’t alone. They were joined by other citizens with the same concerns who’ve been left frustrated over a lack of action. Tennessee Forward Party State Lead Shannon Rasmussen was one of them. From the steps of the Statehouse, she said:

“People of every cohort, every background, every race, and every political leaning are working together in Nashville to make their voices heard. Forward is leveraging our recent experience in the General Assembly and our proximity to the movement to educate people about how they can be involved. We’re working to find the representatives who want to solve problems—and to take note of those who don’t. We’re listening to the voices around us and celebrating the civic engagement that’s happening, because it’s the only thing that will change our broken system.”

Well said, Shannon!

But instead of working on the pressing issue of gun violence, the Tennessee legislature instead voted today to expel two Democratic House members for interrupting a floor session and using a bullhorn to lead chants for gun control. It marks just the fourth time since the end of the Civil War that House members have expelled their elected colleagues.

Now, we understand and have the utmost respect for democratic rules and norms. But when they’re exploited solely to hurt the other “team,” at the expense of doing the people’s business, we have a problem with that. It’s that kind of partisan gamesmanship that doesn’t move us Forward.

Meanwhile, in Florida (where the Forward Party is now official!), Leslie Villegas testified against a pair of state bills, astutely noting:

“Nearly 100% of electoral districts in Florida are uncompetitive, guaranteeing that only one party can win the district, and many candidates run unopposed. Most of you are here today only for this reason, including the leadership of this committee. Voting you out is not possible. I ask you to consider and respect the majority of your constituents.”

Tell ‘em like it is, Leslie!

Forwardists are out there making their mark. Got a similar story to share? Let us know.

A word about 2024
One more very important bit of Forward Party news: This week, our Executive Board formally announced that we will not run a presidential candidate next year. Our plans as an organization are focused on the longer project of strengthening our democracy through competition, and we can't afford to be distracted from that goal. For our full statement on this decision, please click here.

• New national political party looks to Stonington borough candidate for a boost —The Day
  
  
• Does America need a third party? —Governing
  
  
• Arizona Democrats to sue No Labels to block third-party challenge —The Washington Post
  
  
• No Labels group scaring Democrats for 2024 —National Review
  
  
• ‘A betrayal’: NC Democrats, White House blast Cotham’s decision to leave party, join GOP —The News & Observe

OTHER NEWS & VIEWS

RCV takes a step forward in VT
The Vermont Senate has advanced a bill that would implement ranked-choice voting in Vermont for presidential primary elections beginning in 2028. A study committee comprised of lawmakers, representatives from the Secretary of State’s Office, municipal governments, and other stakeholders will convene to take a closer look at how widespread RCV would operate in Vermont. The bill faces one more Senate vote before moving to the House. —VT Digger

More ranked-choice voting news:

• Arizona Republican lawmakers move to block ranked-choice voting effort —Tucson.com

• Minnesota elections could see ranked-choice voting by 2026 —The Minnesota Daily

• How would ranked-choice voting work in Chicago? —WTTW

• Eric Buhler: Ranked-choice voting: Keep Montana independent —The Missoulian

• Kenia Peregrino: Why ranked-choice voting could be the way forward —Yakima Herald-Republic

• Jonathan Bydlak: Ranked-choice voting could help cure the GOP's 'candidate quality' problem —The UnPopulist

• Mark Ritchie: Ranked-choice voting’s time has come —The Star Herald

Open primaries worked in Chicago 
“In Chicago’s recent mayoral primary election, the use of an open primary system allowed for a more diverse and inclusive candidate pool, resulting in a more competitive election, with a wider range of candidates vying for the mayorship. In an open primary system, all registered voters are allowed to participate in the primary election, regardless of their political affiliation. In short, open primaries ensured that all Chicagoans have a say in who (or who won’t) the next mayor could be.” —Dariel Cruz Rodriguez in The Fulcrum

More open primaries news:

• Amendment to require direct partisan primary elections will be decided by Arizona voters in 2024 —Ballotpedia News

• Independents excluded from PA’s 2023 primary election —Spotlight PA

• Republicans seek to change Montana primary to thwart Tester —Associated Press

• Open primary supporters renew push to bring in new voters —Fox56

• Ed Board: Closed minds prevent open primaries —The Times-Tribune

• Alexandra Sharp: Two great election reforms that go great together —Washington Monthly

WI liberal wins state Supreme Court seat
Wisconsinites on Tuesday elected Milwaukee County Judge Janet Protasiewicz as their newest justice on the state Supreme Court. She defeated conservative justice Dan Kelly in a contentious race that could have major ramifications for policy in the state going forward. Wisconsin has some of the most gerrymandered electoral maps in the country, but the new majority could change that. Litigants will almost certainly bring a gerrymandering case, and given the justices' 10-year terms, the liberal court will have a say over not only the current maps but also the maps drawn after 2030. —Reason

More gerrymandering news:

• Judge rejects Galveston County's move to dismiss gerrymandering lawsuit —The Daily News
  
  
• The most peculiarly gerrymandered districts —The New Yorker
  
  
• Chris Churchill: No more gerrymandering madness —Times Union

We can solve our political divisions
“We live in a country of incredible diversity; our upbringings and experiences define our opinions on politics, policies, and the country we want to live in. We have a tremendous amount to learn from each other. Unfortunately, prominent politicians and news outlets profit off dividing us across cultural lines. Political parties raise money off painting the policies of the other side of the aisle as a plot to turn America into an apocalyptic hellscape. The manufactured outrage, cultural division, and social media-incited breakdown in constructive dialogue make America seem irreparably divided. It may sound naive to say this, but we agree on more than it appears.” —Ryan Bernsten in The Fulcrum 

Since the Forward Party launched, we’re sure you’ve heard the negative criticisms lobbed our way. We don’t take it personally. Change is hard, and we get it. If it ever gets you down, remind yourself of this: it’s not about us. What the critics are actually reacting to is the faulty system that relegates anyone new or different to “spoiler” status. Then hold your head up high and keep moving Forward.

Notations On Our World (Special Sunday Edition): Out & About in America

It has been quite a week in America as our team pulled together a discourse on the week that was in the aftermath of the Trump indictment in New York:

Call Ron DeSantis what you please. The new Scott Walker? Tim Pawlenty? Bobby Jindal? Or how about the new Rick Perry?  One more Republican Great White Hope presidential candidate who appears to be headed directly for the dumpster. Nikki Haley and Mike Pence might start making room for him on the Bench of Nobodies.

Of course, I never ever make predictions in these essays.  Though such a disastrous end for DeSantis sure seems like a real possibility.  His current faux book tour/ campaign swing has revealed a candidate who has jumped into waters way above his head.  The problem with DeSantis is that he needs to be playing a role and he cannot quite decide what the role is.  He cannot rely on his instincts as Trump does because it’s not clear he has any other than being a coldly cynical opportunist.

While he peddles himself as a tribune of freedom and liberty, his biggest support comes from those delighted by how he uses the power of big government to bludgeon his real and invented opponents and enemies.  Not much in common with traditional conservatism. They love how he snubbed common sense public safety protocols during the pandemic so he could demonize Dr. Fauci.  They revel in his unrelenting attacks on “CRT,” “wokeness,” and public education in general. He’s a zealot when it comes to banning books. And his aggravated hostility to everything and anything LGBTQ earns him the highest marks among the most backward segments of the populace. And what can be more glorious than kicking Mickey Mouse in the nuts?

All of this unabashed aggression is just fine and dandy back home in his own private DeSantiStan of Florida – where there is clearly something in the water that turns so many of its residents into jackasses.  But it’s not nearly enough to win a general election for President of the United States and, sadly for the Governor, it looks like it might not be enough to even win the Republican nomination.

There’s a simple reason impeding certain victory for DeSantis.  It’s that nobody does Donald J. Trump better than Donald J. Trump. And all that DeSantis has done so far is to project only a slight variation of classic Trumpism, making him but a cheap and unsatisfying imitation.

I did you all a favor and watched Trump’s Saturday rally in Waco, Texas so you didn’t have to. And while Trump is now crazier than a bedbug, and quite dangerous I might add, his performance for more than 90 minutes still captivated the thousands who hung through hours of delirious warm up speeches to intently listen, applaud, hoot and holler for Trump. 

There’s just no way on earth that DeSantis can match such a performance.  He lacks the charisma, the evil charm and the manic energy of Trump.  Indeed, DeSantis lacks any visible personality whatsoever, any set of working social skills and, most importantly, he seems to lack any specific knowledge of who he is and exactly what he stands for. Being Trump Light doesn’t cut it, especially when the Real Thing is still out and performing in public with full froth and effervescence. He caught a whiff of hell from “establishment” Republicans when he issued an inane statement last week enlisting in the Trumpian world view, writing of the Russian war against Ukraine as a mere “territorial dispute” of no strategic interest to the U.S.  That might get him some kudos from the GOP’s Putin faction as well as an invite to a Code Pink rally but it went over like Hitler’s Bar Mitzvah among a whole lot of Republicans who still despise Russia. After he was chastised for it, he pasted together a couple new sentences in an interview late last week, reversing course and agreeing that Putin was a war criminal that needs to be “held accountable.”  In the end, DeSantis wound up alienating both major factions of the GOP, those who support the war and those who oppose it by feebly trying to have it both ways.

Along with the standard disclaimer that it’s still early and that the coming indictment/s of Trump may radically scramble the picture, make no mistake about it: Donald Trump as of today remains the undisputed leader of a very diseased Republican Party as well as standing as the clear front runner and favorite for the nomination.  Yes, his support has somewhat deteriorated…after all when any pol hits 95% approval as he once did among Republicans, some decline is inevitable.  But that’s not the same as being out of the game. At the moment, Trump faces no real or serious primary challenge other than DeSantis who, in order to prevail, must not only deeply cut into Trump’s base, but must also expand his appeal to somewhat more rational Republicans (assuming there are any still left). And as to the indictments, I will make another non-prediction: the coming indictments will certainly not help Trump in a general election, but they are not going to hurt him much in the primaries.  He’s perfectly capable of getting to the nomination finish line first but with an arm and a leg blown off and bleeding from the head as a result of legal action against him. He’s not going to surrender mid-stream no matter how many body parts fall off. Keep this much in mind: Donald Trump today is much more popular among a broader swath of Republicans than he was in 2016.

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One of the great masturbatory pundit games of the moment is to speculate on whether Trump or DeSantis represents the greater threat to American democracy.  Sorry. They both do. If DeSantis were to prevail he would do so by absorbing the Trump base and rendering himself subject to it, the same way Kevin McCarthy has become MTG’s official Little Bitch (McCarthy further pandered to the neo-fascist right this week by meeting with and celebrating the mother of Ashli Babbitt—the young woman who was shot to death on January 6 as she tried to penetrate the room where several congress-members were hiding).  The contest between Trump and DeSantis can accurately be described as one between a deranged grifter and psychopath on the one hand and on the other a grim, committed authoritarian who seems willing to support any extreme policy so long as it pisses off Democrats.

Trump, meantime, has never been as dark, as threatening, as extreme as he has in his current phase.  It was no accident that for this first big campaign rally he chose Waco, Texas – virtual sacred ground for the anti-government, pro-fascist militias and other extremists who live among us.  This is where in 1993 some 80 members of the Branch Davidian religious cult were incinerated (by fires they set) culminating a 51 day FBI siege of the cult compound.  And it was to commemorate Waco that Tim McVeigh blew up the Oklahoma City Federal Building killing nearly 200 people on the precise anniversary of the Waco holocaust two years later.  Holding the rally there was a strong message to the fascist adjacent Right that Trump is their guy.  And in case that wasn’t clear enough, Trump went out of his way to heap adoration on the American Right’s current Eva Braun -- Marjorie Taylor Greene. “Marjorie Taylor Greene. I don’t want to insult you by saying this, Marjorie, but on the plane, I said, ‘People don’t realize how brilliant she is,’” Trump said and then went on to applaud her recent solidarity visit with January 6 defendants in the DC jail.

“Would you like to run for the Senate?” Trump then asked in Greene’s direction. “I would fight like hell for you.”

 (Another non-prediction: it sure sounded to me like Trump is seriously considering MTG as his running mate).

If there was any doubt as to exactly whom Trump was aiming his performance that was clarified as soon as he took the stage (that is after Ted Nugent called Zelenszky a “homosexual weirdo” and Pillow Guy Lindell repeated a long list of lies about the 2020 election). His hand over his heart, Trump stood solemnly as the so called “January 6 Choir” — composed of violent jailed Jan6 rioters sang a ditty called “Justice for All” featuring Trump himself reciting the Pledge of Allegiance over the choir singing the national anthem. Roll over, Horst Wesel!

During his 90 minute speech, full of whining about American Carnage, and painting a picture of an America haunted by roaming violent gangs of immigrants, BLM thugs, a woke, collapsed and useless military, a rogue FBI persecuting Free Americans, and deviant sexual perverts sifting through our schools bent on grooming our children he referred to the 2024 election in apocalyptic terms, calling it the “final battle” to save the country from “demonic” forces.  This is crap straight out of the Militia Right playbook. The previous week he issued a late night screed from Mar-A-Lago calling the Manhattan African-American prosecutor Alvin Bragg a “a Soros-backed animal” thereby scoring a twofer of Racism and Anti-Semitism. In that same statement, Trump predicted “death and destruction” if and when he is indicted. I doubt if Trump has ever read or even knows what the Bhagavad-Gita is but don’t be surprised if in the next few weeks its best-known phrase pops up in one of his speeches: “I am become Death.”

It’s been said many times over the last few months but that does not undercut its basic truth: a second Trump administration would be about revenge and payback and would be like something never seen before in America. It would butcher American democracy and would involve a total trashing of our already decaying public values and virtues. Indeed, it’s almost impossible to imagine who would actually populate such a crew.  It would make the 2017 cabinet look like a Girl Scout troop.

The good news is that it seems impossible – or if you prefer, highly unlikely-- for Trump to win a general election. In 2016 he was the most unpopular of all candidates but had the good fortune of running against a very problematic Hillary Clinton and was able to eke out his victory thanks to the quirks of an obsolete 200 year old electoral college. Trump thought he had happened upon the winning formula of grievance and lightly shrouded racism.  But he lost in 2018. And lost again big time in 2020. And his candidates got their clocks cleaned in 2022.  There’s absolutely no way Trump can win the presidential popular vote and he can get elected only if there is some chicanery in the state by state certification process – certainly a possibility albeit rather remote as this sort of anti-democratic funny business has finally caught the attention of other Republicans like Mitch McConnell and Trump’s hand picked candidates willing to engage in such nefarious stunts were soundly defeated last November.

So, yeah… it’s highly unlikely that either Trump or DeSantis can win a general election.  But that Trump continues to reign as maximum leader of a robust know-nothing anti-Democratic movement that will be with us for some time to come is a dead certainty.  And we need to take this very seriously. Assuming he cannot win the presidency is not enough. ++

 

Notations On Our World (Special Edition): On Our World

As we go dark for Easter Week, our team presents this as we look forward to the privilege to serve: