Sunday, June 16, 2024

On Our "Virtual Route 66" Around The World: On the Week That Was

 


Our team pulled together a snapshot of the Week with thoughts courtesy of Zeteo, the Financial Times, Defense One, Politico, and France24 as the G7 concluded in Italy, as the War in Ukraine went on and on, and France's elections began. The UK elections is two weeks away and the first Presidential Debate in the United States is also before us:

FRANCE
Fighting on two fronts, France’s Macron flags ‘extremist fever’ on right and left
French President Emmanuel Macron fought his last presidential campaign against the far right’s Marine Le Pen, and then the ensuing parliamentary polls against a newly united left. Just two years on,…

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West Wing Playbook

BY ELI STOKOLSLAUREN EGAN AND BEN JOHANSEN

Welcome to POLITICO’s West Wing Playbookyour guide to the people and power centers in the Biden administration.

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PARIS — Before he departed France on Sunday, President JOE BIDEN touted the importance of alliances based on democratic values and expressed optimism that “that’s still who America is.”

And then, just a few hours after Air Force One lifted off, the European continent, and France most of all, said it didn’t care.

Sunday’s European Union elections, in which far-right parties sent a rebuke to centrist leaders aligned with Biden’s vision, felt like a political earthquake — one that could usher in even more disruptive aftershocks. Belgium Prime Minister ALEXANDER DE CROO resigned following his party’s poor showing; and, most stunningly, French President EMMANUEL MACRON went on television to call a risky snap election in just weeks that may completely reshuffle his government.

But the ramifications won’t be confined to that side of the Atlantic. Rather, they’ll raise real questions for Biden: Mainly, will he too fall victim to the forces he’s warning against?

During his five-day visit to France, Biden, citing long-standing protocol of not discussing other countries’ domestic politics while overseas, didn’t say anything publicly about the looming EU vote or the expected surge by far-right, Euro-skeptic parties. He didn’t comment after Danish Prime Minister METTE FREDERIKSEN was attacked by a man in Copenhagen on Friday, which was just the latest instance of political violence (national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN expressed some general concern about the incident to reporters).

And when MARINE LE PEN, the leader of the far-right National Rally party reveled in the results on Sunday night — saying it closed “this painful globalist interlude that has caused so much suffering” — Biden released a minute-long video montage of highlights from his time with Macron. One administration official granted anonymity to discuss the matter said the White House isn’t going to overreact given that the EU results were — below the top lines — a mixed bag: While right-wing leaders delivered setbacks to some key G-7 leaders, others fared worse than expected.

In a way, the president’s warnings here against isolationism and extremism look all the more prescient after Sunday’s vote. But the flip side is not comforting for the White House: It appears that a lot of voters on both sides of the Atlantic are tuning out leaders’ talk about democracy and values, increasingly frustrated with the government amid an economic rough patch.

“It’s kind of a paradox, this EU election. The pandemic and war in Ukraine have shown us the need to band together. But people still vote with their national politics in mind,” said LAURA KRAUSE, the founder of More In Common, a nonprofit aimed at mitigating political polarization. “Citizens don’t look at who’s the best party to build a better Europe; it’s more about the current grievances around domestic politics.”

Macron’s snap election gamble is twofold: He’s hoping that turnout will be higher in French elections than it was Sunday for the EU vote; and, secondly, that if the far right does secure a parliamentary majority, the potential dysfunction will help his party in the next presidential contest in 2027.

“Any time you have an electorate asking the question, ‘What’s the worst that can happen?’, you sometimes find out,” said IAN RUSSELL, a Democratic consultant with clients in the U.S. and Europe.

It’s also fairly evident what the worst that can happen is.

If the current group of G-7 leaders, who meet later this week in Italy, are weakened at home or eventually ousted by right-wing leaders, it would all but assuredly damage support for Ukraine, even with EU Commission President URSULA VON DER LEYEN’s pro-EU coalition maintaining its majority.

“In our system, Macron can say that foreign policy is the domain réservé — it’s my area — and can carve out space to still determine our course on certain foreign policy issues,” said LEONIE ALLARD, a visiting fellow at the Atlantic Council. “But it’s still a huge blow if this [election gambit] backfires: How can you be credible if you want to be the front line against Russia if you have a right-wing government?”

More immediately, the political upheaval in France means the country will be “more focused on domestic issues” going forward, said CAMILLE GRAND, a former NATO assistant secretary general of defense based in Paris. “Beyond the July 7 parliamentary election, if Macron does not manage to pull together a coalition, things might get much more complicated,” Grand continued. “But history is not written yet!”

Biden, who made clear last week in France his determination to stand with Ukraine, is subject to many of the same political forces that are upsetting the status quo in Europe. And while the president — with his eagerness to move up the first presidential debate with DONALD TRUMP to late June — is showing he’s ready to take the fight head on, there is no guarantee voters will respond any differently than they just did across Europe.

Krause is hardly the only observer of transatlantic politics who has noted the parallels. “What Trump and these right-wing parties in Europe have in common is they’re able to tap into people’s emotions and grievances in a way that liberal democratic parties have not,” she said.

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POTUS PUZZLER

Who played GEORGE W. BUSH on SNL during his presidency? Ok, that might be too easy. But what word did that person make up that Bush thought was something he actually said?

(Answer at bottom.)

THE OVAL

CHANGING THE SHEETS: For over a year, the Biden campaign and its allies have dismissed Democratic concerns about the president’s reelection prospects. But now, Biden is changing course on a multitude of fronts, our ADAM WREN and ELENA SCHNEIDER report. He’s not conceding that the “bedwetters” are right, but his recent messaging moves — ditching the traditional debate structure, sitting down for interviews with major publications and directly referring to Donald Trump as a “convicted felon” — amounts to him changing the linens (ok, we are hitting the end of this metaphor’s use.)

On the policy front, Biden has adopted a slew of fresh initiatives, including how Ukraine can use American weapons in Russia and executive action effectively shutting down huge swaths of the U.S.-Mexico border.

Inside the Biden campaign, officials stress that this ramp up has been long planned. But they also acknowledge that they’re attempting to make up ground with key voting blocs. “It’s no secret that amongst those who are the most tuned in, Joe Biden is faring well,” one campaign official said. “Where we have to make up ground is among those who have yet to pay a lot of attention to the presidential election. That’s where the information gap is widest.”

AND HERE WE GO: On Monday, the jury of 12 Delawarians began deliberations in the criminal trial of HUNTER BIDEN, who is facing three gun-related felony charges, our BETSY WOODRUFF SWAN and JOSH GERSTEIN report. The group of six men and six women deliberated for about an hour before being dismissed this afternoon without a verdict. Biden’s defense team wrapped up its case earlier today after deciding not to call on him to testify.

First lady JILL BIDEN, who has attended most of the trial, was also back in the courtroom today.

WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE WANTS YOU TO READ: This piece by our KATHERINE TULLY-MCMANUS, who reports that billions of dollars in infrastructure funding are finally flowing into towns and cities, nearly three years after Congress approved Biden’s $1.2 trillion infrastructure law. And now, some vulnerable House Republicans who voted against the legislation are taking credit for the improvements, without mentioning their votes.

Among them is Rep. NANCY MACE (R-S.C.), who called the legislation a “socialist wish list” and a “fiasco” but celebrated the nearly $26 million grant her district will get under the law for a public transit project.

Senior deputy press secretary ANDREW BATES and senior adviser to the chief of staff SALONI SHARMA shared the piece on X.

WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE DOESN’T WANT YOU TO WATCH: In New York over the weekend, budding pop singer CHAPPELL ROAN delivered a stark message during her performance at the Governor’s Ball Music Festival, looking directly into a camera: “This is a response to the White House, who asked me to perform for Pride. We want liberty, justice and freedom for all. When you do that, that’s when I’ll come.”

Roan’s message, an obvious nod to the administration’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war, was met with a roar of applause from the audience of mostly young concert-goers.

ARE WE GOING BACK TO THIS STORY LINE? President Biden’s approval rating has hit 37.6 percent in the latest FiveThirtyEight average — an all-time low for the president. His disapproval rating is at a staggering 56.6 percent, which also makes for a record high. In response, NATE SILVER asks the somewhat dormant question of whether Biden should drop out (he’s not going to).

“Dropping out would be a big risk,” Silver posted on X. “But there's some threshold below which continuing to run is a bigger risk. Are we there yet? I don't know. But it's more than fair to ask.”

CAMPAIGN HQ

IMMIGRATION GROUPS TURN UP THE HEAT: Immigration advocacy group FWD.us launched a new digital and TV ad campaign on Monday, profiling a family who would benefit if Biden moves forward with affirmative relief for long-term, undocumented spouses of U.S. citizens, our MYAH WARD writes in.

It’s part of outside groups’ larger push for the White House to move ahead with the new policy. And it notably comes right after Biden issued his executive action to effectively shut down major sections of the border.

As Myah and LISA KASHINSKY reported last week, Biden is weighing “parole in place” for some undocumented spouses of U.S. citizens, which would shield them from deportation and allow them to work legally while they pursue a path to citizenship. His officials see potential political gains in taking this action soon, pointing to former President BARACK OBAMA’s summer rollout of DACA before the 2012 election.

NORTH STAR BOUND: PATRICK GAGE, former candidate for county commissioner in Hennepin County, Minnesota, has joined the Biden campaign as its political director in Minnesota, he announced on X Monday.

THE BUREAUCRATS

THE GREATEST JOB BIDEN HAS EVER CREATED: Joe Biden is not only generating a historic jobs market, he's ensuring that people remain in the right job for them. On Monday, UConn Men’s basketball coach DAN HURLEY turned down a six-year, $70 million deal to go pro with the Los Angeles Lakers — opting to stay in Storrs as the Huskies look to three peat, the first time since JOHN WOODEN’s UCLA teams tore through the sport in the late 1960s.

It’s great news for our resident UConn fan SAM STEIN, who wrote this item would say there was never any doubt in his mind but who was — like a total lunatic — studying the video footage of Hurley at the BILLY JOEL concert over the weekend looking for clues about whether or not he was going.

AGENDA SETTING

JUST IN CASE: Biden administration officials have discussed a unilateral deal with Hamas to secure the release of all five American hostages being held in Gaza if current ceasefire negotiations with Israel fail, NBC’s MONICA ALBACAROL E. LEE and COURTNEY KUBE report. Such negotiations would not include Israel and instead be mediated by Qatari interlocutors.

It’s unclear what the United States would give in exchange for the release of hostages, but officials noted Hamas could have an incentive to cut a deal with Washington because doing so would likely further strain relations between the U.S. and Israel.

AND SPEAKING OF: Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN returned to the Middle East on Monday. His arrival came as a Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal hangs in the balance. It also took place after an Israeli operation rescued four hostages being held by Hamas, but killed hundreds of Palestinian civilians, AP’s MATTHEW LEE reports. If that wasn’t enough on the diplomatic plate, Blinken’s trip also comes after a key member of BENJAMIN NETANYAHU’s government, war cabinet minister BENNY GANTZ, resigned on Sunday.

GENUINE GOOD NEWS: Violent crime dropped significantly in the first three months of 2024 compared with the same time last year, new FBI data shows. Overall, violent crime dropped 15.2 percent, with murder decreasing by 26.4 percent, rape by 25.7 percent, robbery by 17.8 percent and aggravated assault by 12.5 percent. The data from the Bureau’s Uniform Crime Reporting Program is a welcomed sign for the White House, which has sought to counter the Republican-led insistence that crime is rising.

"May Gaza burn": The flood of genocidal rhetoric from Israel's soldiers

Inside Israel's Insta-Genocide, Part Two of our Zeteo investigation

 
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Senior Israeli military commander Gur Rosenblat is explicit: All of Gaza, “not just the Hamas organization,” must be eliminated and its 2 million people driven out. The Strip, he writes on social media, should “cease to exist.”

While Rosenblat, the head of Israel’s Northern Infantry Brigade who also serves as the deputy general director of the country’s Education Ministry, makes clear he’s not speaking in his official capacity in an Oct. 13 Facebook post, he does not attempt to disguise his genocidal calls. “People who are human beasts and their supporters must pay a high price – if not with their lives, then with expulsion,” he writes. 

Just three days later, an Instagram account with the username @gvrrvznblt that claims to be Rosenblat, posted a photo with the caption: “Why don’t we kill ten, twenty thousand Gazans a day with shelling for every day they don’t return the abductees [Israeli hostages]…Madness.”

The caption of the post reads in part: “Why don’t we kill ten, twenty thousand Gazans a day with shelling for every day they don’t return the abductees [Israeli hostages]…Madness.”

In calling for a “decisive victory” on Facebook on Nov. 20, Rosenblat clarifies that “only the complete and final erasure” of Gaza City, the Palestinian enclave’s most populous city prior to the war, and the “transfer of its residents to the southern part of the Strip… can bring about some change,” he says. 

A “kind of second or third Nakba,” he adds. “Just as [the Palestinian village of] Sheikh Munis, on whose ruins Tel Aviv was established [in 1948], and many other Arab settlements were erased, so too must the city of Gaza be erased.”

Rosenblat is not alone. Since Oct. 7, we’ve uncovered hundreds of social media posts by Israeli military personnel, including commanders, filled with dehumanizing, hateful, and often genocidal rhetoric. The posts contribute to a mounting body of evidence pointing to what human rights groups and others have called a systematic pattern of war crimes committed by Israeli forces in the Gaza Strip. They also lay bare the intent of Israel’s war on Gaza. It’s not a “defensive war” aimed at ensuring “minimum harm to civilians,” as Israel and its allies like to claim. The soldiers’ own words suggest harming civilians through death, destruction, and displacement is, in fact, an objective. 

In part one of our investigation for Zeteo, we highlighted the dehumanizing photos soldiers have shared from Gaza. In part two, we document the genocidal rhetoric that has become an all too common theme among Israeli soldiers, including those deployed to Gaza. Unless noted, the soldiers who shared the posts did not respond to our requests for comment. 

Read the Full Version

A Blueprint To “Annihilate Them To Dust”

A Facebook page claiming to be Col. (Res.) Elad Schvartz posted a video on Oct. 8 with a message for Israel’s leaders. "If within four hours all the hostages [aren't] released..., start burning Gaza," says the senior officer from the 91st division, dressed in his military uniform. "Neighborhood after neighborhood."

About 40 miles away, soldiers appearing to be from the 5060th Reserve Battalion, which operates in the occupied West Bank city of Hebron, made their own broader call to burn Palestinian cities across the occupied territories: “May your village burn, may your village burn,” several of soldiers chant in a video posted to Instagram by an Israeli soldier. 


The demands – calling for the broad destruction of a people and their land – weren’t just rhetoric. As the world has witnessed over the last eight months, they served as a blueprint for destruction, documented not just by Palestinians in Gaza, but also by Israeli soldiers on the ground in the Strip who appeared eager to boast to their followers about what they planned to do – and when they did it. 

This was especially true around the fighting that took place in the heavily populated Gaza City neighborhood of Shuja’iyya, where many Palestinians had sought shelter early in the war. As the Israeli military pushed into the area in December, communications blackouts made it hard to know exactly what was happening. It would turn out to be a fierce battle

At least two Instagram accounts, claiming to be soldiers with the Givati brigade, shared what appeared to be drone footage showing buildings in the neighborhood in flames. An unidentified voice, presumably a soldier, is heard on the video saying they’re setting out for “operation eighth night of Hannukah" to burn Shuja’iyya. “Let our enemies learn and be deterred…We will annihilate them to dust,” the voice adds.

Mohammed Abo Al-Kombz, who is from Shuja’iyya, told Zeteo that entire parts of the neighborhood and nearby areas had been torched in a way that appears to be consistent with what the video shows.


The Israeli military did not answer our specific questions about the footage or whether it carried out a specific operation like the one mentioned in the video. But the fact the video was uploaded to social media by Israeli soldiers appears to illustrate the message they wanted to send - to “annihilate” Palestinians “to dust.” 

The home of the Abo Salem family that was torched by Israeli forces in Shuja’iyya. Photo obtained by Zeteo.
The home of the Abo Salem family that was torched by Israeli forces in Shuja’iyya. Photo obtained by Zeteo.

On Dec. 19, Capitan Roi Azran posted a video on Facebook from Shuja'iyya, appearing to show off the destruction of the neighborhood. "Here is Gaza, the daughter of a whore. All of Shuja’iyya will rise in flames,” someone says in the video. 

In January, an Instagram account with the username alon_dayann, claiming to be Israeli soldier Alon Dayan, posted a video using similar language. “Good morning, you sons of whores,” a soldier in the video is heard saying before shooting at what appear to be civilian homes. The video’s caption reads in Hebrew: “May Gaza burn on all its inhabitants.” 

The caption reads in part: “May Gaza burn on all its inhabitants.” 

Sharon Ohana of the Israeli military’s Combat Engineering Corps, in a December Facebook post, appears to foreshadow what’s to come. The “fate” of Shuja’iyya, Khan Younis, and Rafah “must be as the fate of the northern [Gaza] Strip at the beginning of the war – dirt, fire, and leftover concrete," Ohana writes in December. “…We must flatten all of Gaza!”

Read the Full Version

Surely Ohana’s post is just a bad joke? Ohana makes it very clear it is not. “‘Together we will flatten’ is not a joke, but an unequivocal statement written in blood by the best security-minded IDF officers & not for naught…”

The caption reads in part: "The fate of Shuja'iyya … must be as the fate of the northern [Gaza] Strip at the beginning of the war - dirt, fire, and leftover concrete….’Together we will flatten’ is not a joke, but an unequivocal statement written in blood by the best security-minded IDF officers & not for naught…"

As the battle raged in Shuja'iyya, other Israeli units were invading the southern Gazan city of Khan Younis. Israeli soldier Peleg Harush posted a video to Instagram on Dec. 5, showing billows of smoke coming from what appears to be Palestinians’ homes. “Ah… Gaza is burning. May you burn alive you whores,” a voice says in the video in Hebrew. 

In another post in January from the same account, a soldier appearing to be Harush sends a message to Gaza’s residents in Hebrew: “Everything is ruined, destroyed, burned, smashed. You have nowhere to return to, Gazans. To all dear Gaza residents, you are not dear. You are cheap….We are going to make you miserable…You are going to suffer every second for what you did to us…. You are going to die.” 


Culture of Impunity

For a country that labels its military the “most moral … in the world,” one would think such posts would elicit harsh disciplinary action in an attempt to protect its global image. But as our investigation shows, the Israeli military, at least publicly, has taken few steps to stop its soldiers from sharing such content. 

What we found instead was a culture of impunity. 

Unless noted, the Israeli military did not answer Zeteo’s questions about specific soldiers or posts. But an Israeli military spokesperson told Zeteo in a statement that “all the videos, images, and social media posts” we pointed to “are inconsistent with the values of the IDF and do not reflect its policy.” 

In “a number of the examined cases, it appears that the expression or behavior of the soldiers in the footage is inappropriate and that they have been handled accordingly,” the spokesperson said, noting, however, that “the documented act, by which the statement is accompanied, was carried out for military purposes and in accordance with the orders” like in the case of the destruction of “enemy infrastructure.”  

“The relevant authorities were familiar with several of the incidents listed in the query, which were examined, and dealt with at the disciplinary and command level prior to query’s submission,” the spokesperson said.  The Israeli military did not elaborate on what specifically the disciplinary action entailed.

“Those cases which were not previously known, have now been transferred for further examination and handling,” the spokesperson added. “In cases where suspicion of a criminal offense arises that justifies opening an investigation, an investigation is opened by the Military Police.”

Israeli military spokesperson Daniel Hagari told ABC News earlier this year that the Israeli military is “an army of the people. And we follow the core, the values and the international law.”

Several of the posts uncovered in our investigation remain online, despite evidence that the military’s policy on social media has been violated. 

In the case of Harush, who in a post said, “May you burn alive you sons of whores,” the Israeli military told us in February that the behavior of the soldier was inappropriate and handled accordingly, without elaborating. Yet, in a post from mid-April, he wrote, “Gaza we back,” without having deleted his other posts. 

In many ways, the posts are reflective of large parts of Israeli society post-Oct. 7. A “genocide fever” has taken over the country’s airwaves, entertainment industry, grocery stores, and neighborhoods, Zeteo contributor Diana Buttu wrote in May. At the beginning of the year, the vast majority of Jewish Israelis surveyed for one poll said they thought the military was using “adequate or too little force” in Gaza. Many of the social media posts found as part of this investigation received dozens of supportive comments and likes. 

Genocidal Posts, Despite ICJ Order

The Israeli military’s decision to allow, even indirectly, these posts to exist has already proven to be consequential. In January, the World Court ordered the Israeli government to take measures to prevent and punish any “direct and public incitement to genocide,” which is punishable under the Genocide Convention. South Africa, which brought the case against Israel to the International Court of Justice, cited several similar posts by Israeli soldiers, including at least one we previously exposed, as evidence of genocidal incitement. 

Read the Full Version

The specific ICJ order related to preventing “incitement to genocide,” which was part of a package of provisional measures issued by the court, was one of two that received the support of the then-Israeli judge Aharon Barak. Yet, despite the Court’s order, new posts featuring genocidal language continue to emerge. 

In April, an Instagram account claiming to be Yehuda Ben Moha, co-founder of Eyal Battalion, shared a video showing what he says were trucks carrying flour, with the caption: “I would’ve put poison in for the ‘uninvolved.’ Even the Egyptian truck drivers can’t stand them.” Ben Moha declined to comment on the post, and the account was made private after we reached out for comment. 

On April 17, a Facebook account claiming to be Lt. Col. Maoz Schwartz of the Battalion 7007 posted a photo appearing to show forcibly displaced Palestinians bathing in the sea. “They’re at a beach and our hostages are withering in captivity?? They [Gazans] can choke! No beach, no pool, nothing!” he writes. “[A]ll of Gaza is one big terror zone, including those bathing at the beach in the picture.”

The caption of the post reads in part: “They’re at a beach and our hostages are withering in captivity?? They [Gazans] can choke! No beach, no pool, nothing! …all of Gaza is one big terror zone, including those bathing at the beach in the picture.”

Military’s Narrative Falls Apart

Our investigative efforts have not only exposed the troubling behaviors of Israeli soldiers, but they have also played a role in the legal case brought by South Africa against Israel at the ICJ. However, our work has also drawn the unwelcome attention of Israeli media, which have directed their fire not at the soldiers engaged in barbaric behavior, but at us for exposing it.

Unearthing these materials has been arduous. The work has not only attracted international attention to the situation but has also sparked vital discussions about accountability and justice. It highlights the need for a deeper, more comprehensive examination of the de facto practices and policies within the Israeli military. As more evidence comes to light, the imperative for accountability becomes ever more urgent. 

Ultimately, the posts we uncovered reveal a stark contrast to the carefully curated narrative Israel seeks to project. Despite the Israeli military repeatedly saying it takes precautions to minimize civilian harm, the testimonies from soldiers and officers on the ground tell a markedly different story, one characterized by indiscriminate destruction and a pervasive culture of impunity, which has, in our view, essentially provided soldiers with tacit approval to continue with their actions without fear of consequences. The evidence gathered thus far is only a small fraction of what exists.

But the "incitement to genocide" is now clear for all the world to see.

Read Part 1: Israel's Insta-Genocide

Editor’s note: Captions were added to the video showing soldiers chanting on a bus.

A guest post by
Younis Tirawi
A Palestinian journalist covering politics and security in the Occupied Palestinian Territories, primarily sharing updates on X.
A guest post by
Eran Maoz
An activist in the occupied West Bank

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