Our team decided to break the sabbatical as we continue our ongoing daily assessments on Social Media (Facebook; X) with some updates on the State of the US Elections with three weeks coming up on November 5:
WIth three weeks to go, the race is deadlocked.
We look forward to our assessments starting November 6.
| Our team pulled together a final 'Snapshot" courtesy of the team at Politico, The Washington Examiner, the Coop Scoop, and Route Fifty while out and about in our World as we plan on going dark until after the November 2024 Elections here in the United States--although periodic updates will be available on our X_Platform: CLICKER — “The nation’s cartoonists on the week in politics,” edited by Matt Wuerker — 17 funnies
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DEADLINE DAY — “Kamala Harris posts huge cash advantage over Donald Trump,” by WaPo’s Maeve Reston and Clara Ence Morse: “KAMALA HARRIS’s campaign raised more than four times as much as DONALD TRUMP’s effort in August, capitalizing on the surge of Democratic enthusiasm during the first full month of her presidential campaign. But the super PACs aligned with Trump are continuing to raise large sums from high-dollar donors as the two candidates enter the final sprint before November.” AUGUST BY THE NUMBERS …
Look who’s giving … “Elon Musk steps up political giving with six-figure donation to House Republicans,” by Jessica Piper and Alex Isenstadt | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Donald Trump has convinced himself that a shutdown over voting laws would usher in a GOP wave. | Mario Tama/Getty Images | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
TAMING TRUMP — When Trump took to social media recently and demanded his party refuse to fund the government until Democrats swallow their nationwide proof-of-citizenship voting bill, Republicans across Capitol Hill privately blanched. A government shutdown just five weeks before Election Day would be disastrous, the conventional thinking goes, reminding voters of the chaos that has marked GOP governance in the Trump era. But that, of course, wasn’t Trump’s thinking, according to three Republicans with insight. The former president had convinced himself that a shutdown over voting laws would usher in a GOP wave, enabling him to not only reclaim the White House but land substantial majorities in Congress. Trump, after all, had been burned by the 35-day-shutdown over his demands for a border wall at the end of 2018, with voters overwhelmingly blaming him as president for the chaos that ensued. Therefore, he reasoned, JOE BIDEN, Harris and the Democrats would take the heat this time around, since they’re the ones in power. So if you’re wondering why Speaker MIKE JOHNSON has dragged his feet unveiling his next moves on funding the government — even when everyone and their mother knows what the end result will be — look no further. Johnson has been in a delicate dance with Trump, trying to untangle the ex-president’s beliefs about shutdowns before he bites the bullet and puts up a clean, three-month CR. The speaker met Thursday with Trump when he was in Washington; Johnson previously huddled last weekend with the former president at Mar-a-Lago, just hours after the attempt on Trump’s life at his nearby golf club. And Johnson isn’t the only one working angles with Trump. One person close to the campaign told Playbook that no one on Trump’s team thinks a shutdown would be a good idea, and as our colleagues Sarah Ferris, Jordain Carney and Olivia Beavers wrote yesterday, rank-and-file members have been reaching out to the president trying to “defuse Trump” as they prepare to “defy [his] shutdown demands.” “There have been a number of people, who’ve talked with the president and said, ‘That’s a really bad idea.’ It’s a bad idea for him, frankly,” Rep. MIKE SIMPSON (R-Idaho), a House Appropriations cardinal, told our colleagues. “If you shut down the government a month before the election, that’s problematic.” Meanwhile, bipartisan talks about kicking the can into December are well underway, with many expecting bill text this weekend and a vote in the House early to mid-week — though, again, Johnson has yet to publicly commit due to complications with Trump. The situation is shaping up to be a new test for Johnson’s leadership abilities, skills that require the top House Republican to not only navigate his conference but the desires and political sway of the former president. In the past, Johnson has been able to neutralize Trump at key moments, such as when he pushed a new tranche of aid for Ukraine through the House. But when it comes to an issue that Trump feels will impact his own election, that’s a different matter. Johnson has been emphasizing the risk a shutdown would pose to two dozen House Republicans in difficult races — and to Trump himself. He’s telegraphed cautious optimism Trump will come along. “Look, President Trump understands our dilemma,” he told reporters yesterday when asked if Trump wants a shutdown over noncitizen voting. The former president, he added, is frustrated the House couldn’t pass a CR that addressed the issue but “he understands our margin.” Success won’t involve a Trump endorsement for a clean CR plan — that’s not gonna happen. In the best-case scenario for Johnson, Trump says nothing at all. At the very least, Hill Republicans are hoping he holds off on weighing in until after the bill passes, keeping GOP defections — which could reach 100 or so — to a minimum. JUST POSTED — “Harris campaign lays out its Mark Robinson strategy in North Carolina,” by Natalie Allison: “The plan, Harris advisers outlined in a memo provided exclusively to POLITICO, involves seizing on the current barrage of negative attention on [Lt. Gov. MARK] ROBINSON and putting resources behind targeting suburban voters in the Charlotte and Raleigh areas, moderate Republicans and Black voters in the critical battleground state. Their messaging … will emphasize the controversial candidate’s ties to Trump and his ‘extreme’ policy positions.” Read the memo
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LATEST IN LINCOLN — “Trump ramps up push for Nebraska to change electoral vote allocation,” by WaPo’s Patrick Marley, Josh Dawsey and Michael Scherer: “State Sen. MERV RIEPE (R) said he spoke briefly by phone with Trump on Wednesday in the presence of Nebraska Gov. JIM PILLEN (R) during a visit by Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.), who encouraged Republicans in the state’s unicameral legislature to change to a statewide winner-take-all electoral vote system. … “Trump stressed the importance of making the change and ‘wasn’t threatening in any way at all,’ Riepe said Friday in an interview. ‘Primarily I think he was saying:”‘Look, this is important to me. I’m interested, and I want you to know that I’m not just taking anybody for granted,”’ Riepe said. … “Three people involved in the process, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe internal deliberations, said they think there are multiple holdouts to the change, which would probably face a political backlash in Omaha, where voters have embraced their outsize role in the presidential election and the financial benefits of presidential advertising and campaign visits that come with it. TOP-ED — “ I co-chaired Nikki Haley's Iowa campaign. I am endorsing Kamala Harris,” by Dawn Roberts for The Des Moines Register: “I think both parties let us down by selecting two candidates for president in or near their 80s. I was at a loss. Then, when President Joe Biden stepped down and endorsed Kamala Harris as his replacement, I decided to see who she really was.” | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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9 THINGS THAT STUCK WITH US | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The Supreme Court’s recent decisions on the Second Amendment have unleashed constitutional challenges to long-standing gun laws. | Jon Elswick/AP | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1. ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT FALLOUT: “The Supreme Court expanded gun rights. That could complicate the Trump assassination attempt case,” by Samantha Latson: “RYAN ROUTH was arrested and charged with violating the federal ban on people with prior felony convictions possessing firearms. … But many of those charged under the statute — along with some gun-rights advocates — argue that the law is unconstitutional. The issue has sown confusion in lower courts, and legal experts say it may soon need to be resolved by the Supreme Court.” 2. AMARILLO BY MORNING: “Senate Democrats push leaders to expand map to Florida, maybe Texas,” by WaPo’s Paul Kane: “They fear Democrats are leaving potential pickups on the table, particularly in Florida and Texas, where unpopular incumbents, Sens. RICK SCOTT (Fla.) and TED CRUZ (Texas), have not seen anything resembling the financial onslaught faced by GOP candidates in Ohio, Pennsylvania or Arizona. … Democrats pushing a stay-the-course strategy argue that, despite close polling margins between the candidates, Florida and Texas are massively expensive states with a likely turnout of nearly 11 million voters each.” 3. SALT OF THE EARTH: Vulnerable GOP members are hoping Trump’s reversal on a key tax break among middle and upper-class Americans could help boost their support among uncommitted voters, Ally Mutnick and Sarah Ferris report:“Those voters don’t live in states that would help Trump win the Electoral College. Instead, the SALT cap affects a narrow but influential segment of voters in the well-heeled suburbs in blue states like New York, New Jersey and California — precisely the places that will determine the House majority this fall. … When Trump posted this week about restoring the tax break — and then doubled down on the vow at his rally on Long Island — those members cheered.” 4. SURVEY SAYS: A new Spotlight PA poll of likely voters in Pennsylvania shows that Harris is narrowly leading Trump by four points in the critical swing state, while incumbent senator BOB CASEY is leading his GOP opponent by 7%, Spotlight PA’s Sarah Anne Hughes reports: “Harris’ edge is within the poll’s margin of error, which is plus or minus 4%. But the fact that many post-debate polls show Harris with a modest lead makes it more likely she is ahead.” More on the numbers: “The vice president won 50% support among those surveyed, while the former president secured 46%. … Among unaffiliated and third-party voters — a growing bloc in Pennsylvania — Harris secured 47% compared to Trump’s 42%.” 5. MIDDLE EAST LATEST: As tensions between Israel and Hezbollah militants heighten this week, the White House is taking a step back from its diplomatic efforts, fearing it will make the situation even worse, AP’s Ellen Knickmeyer and Matthew Lee report: “[The escalation] heightens the impression that Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU’s hard-right government is paying ever less attention to the mediation efforts of its key ally, despite depending on the U.S. for weapons and military support. … U.S. officials rejected assertions that they have given up on either a Gaza cease-fire or preventing the conflict from spreading to all-out war in Lebanon.” | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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6. WAR IN UKRAINE: Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKY is planning to appeal pitch a new “victory plan” for the ongoing war in Ukraine ahead of his U.S. trip next week, telling reporters he plans to appeal to Joe Biden’s “sense of legacy” while pushing for less weapons restrictions, WaPo’s Siobhán O'Grady reports: “The plan will include requests to strengthen Ukraine’s arsenal as well as permission to strike targets deeper inside Russia … Biden’s decision ‘depends on many things and depends, of course on a certain number of people. And whether he will hear our arguments,’ Zelensky said.” Related read: “Taiwan Looks for Ways to Defend Itself as U.S. Weapons Supply Hit by Gaza, Ukraine,” by WSJ’s Joyu Wang 7. EYEBROW RAISE: “The curious case of Trump’s disappearing $15 million South Korean debt,” by Robert Maguire for CREW: “[T]here are significant challenges in tracking and quantifying just how much Trump was paid by foreign governments, even in instances where the available evidence strongly suggests Trump benefited financially from foreign emoluments. … There is, perhaps, no better example of this than a nearly $20 million loan balance Trump owed for years to a South Korean company that was controlled by the state-owned Korea Development Bank.” 8. DEMOCRACY DIGEST: “Election fears ignite 'preppers' already planning for the catastrophic unknown,” by NBC News’ Erik Ortiz: “Provocative rhetoric from political candidates is tapping into fears and anxiety over the future, and in Michigan, a battleground state, the prepper belief in self-reliance is meshing with the region’s history of self-styled militia groups that support individual liberties and are suspicious of government power.” 9. SMOKE BREAK: “Trump vows to ‘save’ vaping after private meeting with vaping lobbyist,” by WaPo’s Isaac Stanley-Becker and Dan Diamond: “The comments represent a revisionist account of his administration’s approach to vaping … Former U.S. officials and industry lobbyists argue that Big Tobacco is betting on Trump’s chaotic approach to public health and pliable views on policy as it confronts the possibility of additional regulation of e-cigarettes as well as a ban on menthol cigarettes.” | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
GREAT WEEKEND READS, curated by Ryan Lizza: — “The Exotic Cat-Eaters of Springfield, Ohio,” by Kevin Williamson for The Dispatch: “A pretty long story about a thing that didn’t happen.” — “Is Trump’s Whole Political Career Just a Cockeyed Revenge Plot Against the NFL?” by Rolling Stone’s Noah Shachtman: “For more than 30 years, he was desperate to own a team. After his bid to buy the Buffalo Bills in 2014 was rejected, he vowed payback on an epic scale.” — “The civil war inside the Republican Party deep in the heart of Texas,” by LA Times’ Jeffrey Fleishman: “The far-right movement in Hood County exemplifies the rancor and divisions that have reordered American politics and provoked a battle for the identity of the Republican Party.” — “The Insurrectionists Next Door,” by The Atlantic’s Hanna Rosin: “Ashli Babbitt’s mother and the wife of a notorious January 6 rioter are at the center of a new mythology on the right. They are also my neighbors.” — “The Deserter,” by Sarah Topol for NYT Mag: “He didn’t want to fight in Putin’s war — he just wanted to survive. But to make it back to his family and live in peace, he would have to run.” — “The Searchers,” by Dave Eggers for WaPo: “For thousands of years, humans have wondered whether life is possible elsewhere in the universe, and now we’re within striking distance of being able to say not only yes, but here.” — “Understanding Kamala Harris,” By Bloomberg’s Josh Wingrove, Karen Breslau and Akayla Gardner: “Who she is, and what she might do if she wins.” — “Trump fan targets MAGA foes with menace – and gets away with it,” by Reuters’ Ned Parker and Peter Eisler: “Geoffrey Giglio’s onslaught coincides with the greatest spike in political violence in decades.” — “In the U.S., opioid-maker Purdue is bankrupt. Its global counterparts make millions,” by WaPo’s Madlen Davies, Hristio Boytchev and David Ovalle: “Tactics used to persuade U.S. doctors that potent painkillers could be safely prescribed have been used abroad, an investigation shows.” — “The centrist pitch Kamala Harris won’t make,” by Deseret News’ Samuel Benson: “A Harris-aligned super PAC is preparing an ad blitz with a tough mission: convincing conservative voters that Harris is a centrist.”
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Harris: $189,615,034 raised; $173,848,978 spent; $235,483,260 on hand. … 
Trump: $44,500,313 raised; $61,264,937 spent; $134,575,691 on hand … 
